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Clayface box office tracking

Pop culture · Heat 1.2 / 10 · 1 show · 42m airtime

On October 22, 2026, Deadline reported a $44 million budget for DC Studios' Clayface, DC's first R-rated horror film, which opened October 23 and needs roughly $198 million to break even at a 3x multiplier. Global Box Office now tracks $10 to $12 million for opening day and $25 million domestic for the weekend, against earlier projections of $15 million to $35 million and a hosts' model of $22 million with a $15 million floor. Abroad, the film has not opened at number one in any market, debuting seventh in France. The discussion centers on whether the break-even figure is reachable.

How 1 podcast covered it

  1. Pop Culture Crisis, 2026-10-15 (1:39:28 to 1:57:41)
    Works through the opening math
    Works through Clayface's opening math with a lower reported budget and a tighter tracking range, then argues the DC branding will scare off the horror audience the film needs. Adds a break-even figure and a projection the card did not have.
    New angle: Clayface's reported budget is about $40 million, and Box Office Theory projects a $20 to $29 million opening.
  2. Pop Culture Crisis, 2026-10-22 (5:45 to 9:56)
    Stacks the budget against break-even
    Walks through Clayface's reported $44 million budget, adds a 1.5x marketing load to reach $66 million all-in, and stacks the trade and tracking ranges against a $198 million break-even. Notes the Holmes documentary expanding to about 2,600 theaters as direct competition.
    New angle: Clayface carries a reported $44 million budget and needs about $198 million to break even at a 3x multiplier.
  3. Pop Culture Crisis, 2026-10-22 (9:56 to 14:50)
    Runs the review rollout and its own model
    Runs through the review rollout - Rotten Tomatoes pulling Josh Wilding's review, the trades' staggered positives - then lands on its own model: $22 million high, $15 million floor, inside Box Office Theory's range. Adds a first-hand prediction figure to the tracking pile.
    New angle: The hosts' own model puts Clayface at $22 million, with $15 million as the floor.
  4. Pop Culture Crisis, 2026-10-22 (14:50 to 25:58)
    Explains why the film is soft overseas
    Moves from the tracking numbers to why the film is soft: the DC label on a body-horror movie, mixed reviews read aloud, and the foreign rollout. Adds the overseas result - seventh in France, no number one anywhere it has opened - and a higher all-in spend estimate.
    New angle: Clayface has not opened at number one in any foreign market, debuting seventh in France.
  5. Pop Culture Crisis, 2026-10-23 (1:42:07 to 1:43:47)
    Reports early Clayface tracking numbers
    Brief box office check near the end of the episode: Global Box Office on X now has Clayface at $10 to $12 million for opening day and $25 million for the domestic weekend, which the hosts place at the mid-tier of earlier projections.
    New angle: Global Box Office tracks Clayface at $10 to $12 million for opening day and $25 million domestic for the weekend.
  6. Pop Culture Crisis, 2026-10-25 (58:51 to 1:00:31)
    Argues DC branding confuses horror audiences
    Recaps the box office picture - the $44 million budget, a $20 to $25 million weekend, good walk-ups - and argues the DC branding confuses horror audiences. It stays inside the tracking already on the record.
Unpacking...