On October 19, 2026, the Cook Political Report moved 11 more House races toward Democrats ahead of the midterms, many in red states Trump won handily in 2024. Dave Wasserman credits district polling running five to ten points more favorable than prior expectations, and says more than 20 Republican seats are toss-up or worse. The discussion has settled on a median outcome of a Democratic gain of 15 to 20 seats. Fourteen high-quality House district polls now show shifts from about two points in Pennsylvania's 1st to nearly 23 in North Carolina's 11th.