An NBC News poll released September 11 showed 64 percent disapproval of Trump's job performance, with Democrats leading most key midterm races. Since then, strong approval among Republicans has fallen 11 points since spring to 41 percent, one in five 2024 Trump voters in five red states now disapproves, and Cook shifted 15 House ratings and six Senate seats toward Democrats. The counterargument is on the record: Harry Enten says Senate polls may underestimate Republicans by 3.5 points, and a Democratic pollster privately called the Times/Siena polls too rosy. Forecasters now range from Silver Bulletin's 76 percent Senate chance to about 30 percent under a three-point miss.