Democrats lead 2026 midterm polls
News · Heat 3.1 / 10 · 15 shows · 6h 9m airtime
An NBC News poll released September 11 showed 64 percent disapproval of Trump's job performance, with Democrats leading most key midterm races. Since then, strong approval among Republicans has fallen 11 points since spring to 41 percent, one in five 2024 Trump voters in five red states now disapproves, and Cook shifted 15 House ratings and six Senate seats toward Democrats. The counterargument is on the record: Harry Enten says Senate polls may underestimate Republicans by 3.5 points, and a Democratic pollster privately called the Times/Siena polls too rosy. Forecasters now range from Silver Bulletin's 76 percent Senate chance to about 30 percent under a three-point miss.
How 15 podcasts covered it
- The Daily Show: Ears Edition, 2026-09-11 (1:24 to 2:38)
Reports an NBC poll showing 64 percent disapproval
Covers the state of the midterms with an NBC News poll showing 64 percent disapproval of Trump and Democrats leading key races, framing it as bad news for the GOP.
New angle: An NBC News poll shows 64 percent disapprove of Trump's job performance. - The Daily Show: Ears Edition, 2026-09-12 (30:18 to 31:44)
Runs through the midterm polling
Kosta runs through the midterm polling: Democrats ahead in most key Senate races, House-flip odds near 70%, and an NBC News poll showing 64% disapproval of Trump. - Today, Explained, 2026-09-12 (2:23 to 15:19)
Breaks down the Republican approval internals
Runs through five midterm takeaways, opening with the NBC News survey and adding fresh internals: strong Republican approval at 41 percent, down 11 points since spring, and MAGA support at 62 percent, down from 71. Also brings new polling averages and redistricting rulings.
New angle: 41% of Republicans strongly approve of Trump, down 11 points since spring; MAGA support fell from 71% to 62%. - Up First, 2026-09-14 (12:27 to 13:30)
Adds the structural counterweight to the polls
Wraps the midterm segment with the structural counterweight to the Democratic polling lead: Republican money, gerrymandering and mail-in ballot confusion, plus a Quinnipiac number putting Trump as low as 33 percent last week. - The Daily, 2026-09-16 (26:35 to 27:58)
Argues midterms are referendums on Trump
Nate Cohn argues midterms are referendums on the party in power, so the socialist-nominee attack line matters less than Trump; he notes Democrats now lead on immigration in the poll.
New angle: Democrats now lead on immigration in the poll, an issue that hurt them in the Biden years. - Pod Save America, 2026-09-18 (15:09 to 16:42)
Adds a Cook poll of 37 Trump-won districts
Adds a fresh round of polling to the midterm picture: a New York Times-Siena survey, Nate Silver's D+7.5 generic-ballot average, and a Cook Political Report poll of 37 Trump-won districts now leaning Democratic by two.
New angle: A Cook Political Report poll of 37 competitive House districts has the generic Democrat up two points. - Pod Save America, 2026-09-18 (20:33 to 26:01)
Cites Trump's 20-point drop among Republicans
Pfeiffer argues the environment is better than 2018 and puts new numbers on the record: Trump's strong approval among Republicans down 20 points from Election Day 2018, strong approval among all voters halved, strong disapproval up 7 to 10 points, and independents at 27 percent in the New York Times poll.
New angle: Trump's strong approval among Republicans is down 20 points from Election Day 2018; independents are at 27 percent. - Pod Save America, 2026-09-22 (38:30 to 50:45)
Reports the super PAC spending surge
Picks up the midterm money story the polling point has been circling: Trump has privately conceded he's unpopular, his super PAC has reserved $130 million more, and Republican super PACs spent about $204 million in the first half of September alone. - Up First, 2026-09-23 (6:08 to 10:00)
Walks through the new midterm poll
Walks through a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll: Democrats up 12 on the congressional ballot, 45 percent of voters say their choice is against Trump, and Republicans have lost their edge on the economy, gas prices, foreign policy and immigration.
New angle: NPR/PBS/Marist poll: Democrats lead the congressional vote by 12 points; 53 percent strongly disapprove of Trump. - Start Here, 2026-09-24 (2:18 to 9:37)
Goes to a new CNN poll on Trump
Goes to a new CNN poll and finds Trump at 33 percent approval, 67 percent disapproval, with 27 percent approving of his economic handling and 26 percent of his Iran handling. It then tracks the Republican breaks those numbers have produced: at least 16 Republicans calling for a swift end to the Iran war, Mike Rogers' ad, John Thune saying…
New angle: CNN poll: 33 percent approve of Trump, 67 percent disapprove; 26 percent approve of his Iran handling. - Pod Save America, 2026-09-25 (38:07 to 53:31)
Reads the Times/Siena polls against the ballot
Reads the Times/Siena Michigan and New Hampshire polls against the generic ballot: El-Sayed and Pappas both underperform, El-Sayed is tied among independents and seen as more extreme by 14, and Hochul is up only nine in New York.
New angle: Times/Siena: El-Sayed and Pappas underperform the generic ballot; El-Sayed tied among independents, seen as 14 points more extreme. - Consider This from NPR, 2026-09-25 (2:50 to 9:24)
Recaps the Marist poll and GOP breaks with Trump
Recaps the midterm environment through the Marist poll and the GOP candidates breaking with Trump on the Iran war and the economy. It stays inside the polling story, adding no new figure beyond the 12-point lead already on the record. - The Fox News Rundown, 2026-09-27 (14:24 to 15:20)
Adds the seven-point House lead
Adds the Fox News Power Rankings to the polling pile: a seven-point Democratic House lead, an 11-point overall advantage, 15 House seats moved toward Democrats, Georgia moved to likely Democrat and Kansas dropped to lean Republican.
New angle: Fox News Power Rankings: Democrats lead the House by seven points and hold an 11-point overall advantage. - The Fox News Rundown, 2026-09-27 (15:20 to 28:43)
Walks through the Power Rankings
Fox News Decision Desk pollster Daron Shaw walks through the Power Rankings: six toss-up Senate seats, Republican defection rates of 10 to 11 percent in high-profile races, and an 11-point Democratic enthusiasm edge. He argues the race is a referendum Republicans must turn into a choice.
New angle: Republican defection rates run 10 to 11 percent in some high-profile Senate races. - Pod Save America, 2026-09-27 (19:12 to 20:43)
Attributes Texas shift to national environment
Pfeiffer attributes the Texas shift to the national environment - Trump's unpopularity, the war, gas above $4, diesel above $7, mortgage rates at 7 percent - and adds a demographic claim: 30 percent of Texas's voting-eligible population is Latino, with a quarter of the electorate expected to be Latino. - Pod Save America, 2026-09-27 (29:16 to 31:05)
Adds Cook's 15 shifted House ratings
Adds a fresh Cook Political Report headline to the midterm polling file: 15 House race ratings shifted toward Democrats, with the most likely outcome a Democratic gain of 5 to 15 seats and Republican money moving into districts Trump won by 10 to 15 points.
New angle: Cook Political Report shifted 15 House race ratings toward Democrats; most likely outcome is a 5-to-15-seat Democratic gain. - Pod Save America, 2026-09-27 (33:48 to 36:05)
Adds special-election overperformance data
Adds a special-election data point to the midterm polling story: Democratic overperformance is running about 14 points against 2024, better than 2017 and 2018, with the generic-ballot polling error around three points.
New angle: Democratic special-election overperformance averages 14 points versus 2024, better than 2017 and 2018. - Pod Save America, 2026-09-27 (42:08 to 44:38)
Reconciles Cook's shifts with the Times Senate polls
Reconciles Cook's red-state shifts with New York Times Senate polls: Collins up three in Maine, Democrats underperforming the generic ballot in Michigan and New Hampshire. Attributes the gap to the whitest-state demographics and $70 million in primary attack ads on El-Sayed.
New angle: New York Times polls show Susan Collins ahead by three points in Maine. - The Megyn Kelly Show, 2026-09-29 (2:52 to 7:02)
Reads the new Journal midterm poll
Reads the new Journal poll into the midterm picture: Trump at 37 percent, the lowest for a president approaching a midterm since 1990, and 16 points underwater in key House districts - twice his 2018 deficit. Adds the Texas and South Carolina Senate averages and Kalshi odds.
New angle: A new Journal poll puts Trump at 37 percent, the lowest for a president approaching a midterm since 1990. - Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar, 2026-09-29 (26:27 to 53:07)
Walks through Phillips' Senate forecast
Logan Phillips walks through his Senate forecast: a 70 percent chance Democrats take the majority, a 52.5-seat mean, and Texas rated lean Democrat. Notes Nate Silver's model sits at 71 percent and reads candidate behavior and special-election results as confirmation.
New angle: Phillips' forecast gives Democrats a 70 percent chance of the Senate majority, with a 52.5-seat mean and Texas lean Democrat. - The Dan Bongino Show, 2026-09-30 (51:20 to 51:50)
Reads the Harvard-Harris ballot numbers
Reads out a Harvard-Harris generic ballot poll showing a dead heat at 50-50 among registered voters and a one-point Democratic edge among likely voters, using it to argue the race is not settled and turnout decides it.
New angle: Harvard-Harris, September 26-28: registered voters tied 50-50; likely voters Democrats 51, Republicans 49. - Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar, 2026-09-30 (9:31 to 11:52)
Adds the Angus Reid 16-point lead
Adds a new generic-ballot figure to the polling pile: an Angus Reid poll has Democrats up 16, against the two-to-three-point leads Republicans cited a couple of months ago. Also flags Trump 2024 voters telling pollsters they did not vote for him.
New angle: An Angus Reid poll shows Democrats favored by 16 points on the generic ballot. - Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar, 2026-09-30 (12:04 to 13:55)
Pulls the 8.4-point generic ballot average
Pulls the RealClearPolitics generic ballot average: Democrats up 8.4 points, the highest in modern history, and compares it to 2010 and 2018 to sketch the House-seat range.
New angle: RealClearPolitics' generic ballot average has Democrats up 8.4 points, the highest in modern history. - The Bulwark Daily, 2026-10-01 (5:31 to 7:48)
Adds an AP poll showing 31 percent
Adds a new AP poll to the midterm pile: Trump at 31 percent approval and 69 percent disapproval, with the hosts tying the slide to gas and diesel prices from the war. The economy and cost-of-living figures match the AP numbers already on the record.
New angle: An AP poll puts Trump's approval at 31 percent and disapproval at 69 percent. - The Megyn Kelly Show, 2026-10-02 (2:39 to 7:43)
Reads the AP poll on Trump's affordability numbers
Reads the new AP poll into the midterm picture: 17 percent approve of Trump on cost of living, 26 percent on the economy, and about six in ten Republicans disapprove of his handling of affordability. Adds Politico's reporting that competitive-race Republicans privately asked the White House to keep him out of their districts.
New angle: AP poll: 17% approve of Trump on cost of living, 26% on the economy; about 6 in 10 Republicans disapprove of his affordability handling. - The NPR Politics Podcast, 2026-10-02 (0:51 to 2:37)
Keeps the House projection at five to 15 seats
Montanaro's state-of-play on the House: a dozen or more seats have moved toward Democrats in Cook's ratings, but the projection stays at a five-to-15-seat Democratic gain, a narrow majority. He credits Republican redistricting and Democratic unpopularity for keeping the map from tipping further. - The NPR Politics Podcast, 2026-10-02 (2:37 to 3:38)
Walks six Senate seats trending Democratic
Walks the Senate map with Cook's latest ratings: six seats have moved toward Democrats, Georgia has slipped to likely Democrat, and Kansas is now only lean Republican. A new set of Senate-level ratings rather than a rehash of the House numbers.
New angle: Six Senate seats have trended toward Democrats in Cook Political Report ratings. - The NPR Politics Podcast, 2026-10-02 (3:38 to 5:08)
Maps the widened Senate battlefield
Walks the Senate map race by race and finds the battlefield has widened: North Carolina is now lean Democrat, Georgia has moved to likely Democrat, and Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Michigan and New Hampshire are toss-ups.
New angle: Cook now rates North Carolina lean Democrat and Georgia likely Democrat, with Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Michigan and New Hampshire toss-ups. - The NPR Politics Podcast, 2026-10-02 (8:25 to 9:24)
Restates Trump's 37 percent approval
Montanaro's two-minute comparison of Trump's 37 percent approval to George W. Bush in 2006, with the note that the environment favors Democrats but fewer seats are competitive. It restates a figure already in the file and adds no new development. - Morning Wire, 2026-10-04 (29:14 to 46:42)
Debates which issue costs Republicans in November
Panel debate on which issue costs Republicans in November, with new reporting folded in: a directive to stop deporting people merely here illegally that the White House walked back, CNN's story on Trump's anger at Mullen, and a Fairfax County prosecutor's primary challenge. - The Fox News Rundown, 2026-10-05 (2:08 to 13:24)
Reads the midterm map race by race
Pollster Lee Carter reads the midterm map race by race: the national blue-wave numbers hide an Etch A Sketch, and on affordability Americans split 36-36 between the parties. She flags undecideds at five to six percent of the electorate, the group that put Trump over the edge in 2024, and doubts they turn out.
New angle: Asked who would bring prices down, Americans split 36 percent Democrats, 36 percent Republicans. - The Megyn Kelly Show, 2026-10-05 (6:20 to 7:03)
Adds Quinnipiac numbers on House control
Adds fresh numbers to the midterm polling file: a Quinnipiac survey showing 51 percent want Democratic control of the House against 39 percent for Republicans, plus 65 percent disapproval on the economy and 62 on foreign policy, and Trump's 38 percent RealClearPolitics average.
New angle: Quinnipiac: 51% want Democrats to control the House, 39% Republicans; 65% disapprove of Trump on the economy, 62% on foreign policy. - The Daily, 2026-10-05 (2:24 to 14:16)
Walks through Times/Siena polls of five red states
Nate Cohn walks through new Times/Siena polls of five red-state Senate races: Democrats lead Texas, Alaska and Ohio, are tied in Iowa and Kansas, and Trump's approval across those states sits at 40 percent, down five points since June.
New angle: Times/Siena polls of five red states show Democrats leading Texas, Alaska and Ohio and tied in Iowa and Kansas. - Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar, 2026-10-05 (42:01 to 1:07:23)
Runs the Senate polls and debates the error
Runs through the Times/Siena Senate numbers - Peltola plus seven in Alaska, Talarico plus five in Texas, Brown plus three in Ohio, El-Sayed plus five in Michigan, Kansas tied, Collins plus three in Maine - and argues over whether the Trump-era low-propensity polling error repeats. Retelling and speculation, no new development. - The Dan Bongino Show, 2026-10-05 (8:26 to 9:35)
Plays CNN polling on even voter enthusiasm
Plays a CNN polling segment with Harry Enten showing voter enthusiasm is even: 71 percent of Democrats and the same share of MAGA Republicans say they are certain to vote in 2026. A new figure from a source not yet on the record, used to push back on the blue-tsunami framing.
New angle: CNN polling: 71 percent of Democrats and the same share of MAGA Republicans say they are certain to vote in 2026. - The Bulwark Daily, 2026-10-05 (11:38 to 22:11)
Walks the Times/Siena polls race by race
Walks the new Times/Siena state polls race by race: Peltola plus seven in Alaska, Talarico plus six in Texas, Hinojosa up four in the governor's race, Brown plus three and Acton plus four in Ohio, Hinson plus one in Iowa, Sand plus eleven, Hamilton tied in Kansas, with Trump's favorability around 40 in states he won big.
New angle: Times/Siena has Hinojosa up four in the Texas governor's race and Sand up 11 in Iowa's. - Pod Save America, 2026-10-06 (3:38 to 13:36)
Walks the Times/Siena five-state crosstabs
Walks the new Times/Siena five-red-state poll crosstabs: Trump at 40/56, one in five 2024 Trump voters now disapproving, independents at D+24, and Democratic Senate candidates outrunning their party's brand by 17 points.
New angle: One in five 2024 Trump voters in the five red states now disapprove of his job performance. - Up First, 2026-10-06 (2:26 to 6:43)
Frames the poll wave and the money shift
Montanaro frames the poll wave: 37 percent approval ties George W. Bush in 2006 for the worst pre-midterm rating in half a century, and Republicans are moving money out of North Carolina into Kansas.
New angle: Trump's 37 percent approval ties George W. Bush in 2006 for worst pre-midterm rating in 50 years. - The Rest Is Politics: US, 2026-10-06 (13:23 to 14:56)
Adds economic approval and corruption numbers
Adds two figures not yet on the record - economic approval at 27 percent and 87 percent saying Trump is corrupt - and notes his new vote-by-mail video after years of attacking the practice.
New angle: Trump's economic approval is 27 percent and 87 percent think he is corrupt. - The Rest Is Politics: US, 2026-10-06 (21:23 to 24:20)
Explains the red-state polls by candidate quality
Recaps the red-state polling and explains it through candidate quality: Schumer recruited centrist nominees in Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Alaska and Kansas, unlike the wackier picks in Maine and Michigan. Stays inside the week's polling story, adding only the hosts' read. - The Rest Is Politics: US, 2026-10-06 (24:20 to 25:45)
Runs the Senate map and floats gas prices
Runs the Senate map - Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa - and floats two ways Trump could move gas prices before election day, an Iran deal or a deal with Mark Carney. Retelling of the week's polling with a prediction attached. - The Megyn Kelly Show, 2026-10-07 (15:12 to 18:58)
Reads the YouGov seven-state Senate poll
Reads the new YouGov seven-state Senate round: Democrats lead five races, with Talarico up six in Texas, Pappas up eight in New Hampshire, and Moody the lone Republican ahead in Florida. The first state-by-state numbers this show has put on the record.
New angle: YouGov's seven-state poll has Democrats leading five Senate races, with Talarico up six in Texas and Pappas up eight in New Hampshire. - Pod Save America, 2026-10-11 (2:24 to 11:37)
Frames the midterm environment through history
Axelrod's segment on the midterm environment: Trump is more unpopular than any president going into a midterm since Truman, the Iran war and tariffs have pummeled Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska, and the front-loaded tax cuts did not land. Framing and history, not new numbers. - Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar, 2026-10-12 (57:32 to 1:07:13)
Reads the Senate PAC's ad money moves
Walks through a Politico poll finding that even an end to the Iran war, lower inflation or a dollar off gas would not move many voters, then reads the Democratic Senate Majority PAC's new money moves: all North Carolina ads scrapped, $7 million added in Ohio, $2.5 million in Iowa and $5 million in Kansas.
New angle: The Democratic Senate Majority PAC scrapped all North Carolina ads and added $5 million in Kansas. - The Bulwark Daily, 2026-10-12 (28:53 to 31:59)
Reads the swing by income gradient
Adds an income-gradient read of the Democratic swing: in a deep analysis of Tom Suozzi's district the smallest movement came from the highest-income voters and the largest from the lowest, with Ron Brownstein flagging a big white working-class swing in key states.
New angle: In Suozzi's district the smallest Democratic swing came from the highest-income voters and the largest from the lowest. - The Bulwark Daily, 2026-10-12 (35:09 to 37:12)
Breaks down the too-far-left numbers by state
Walks through the state-level numbers on the 'too far left' question and finds the split that matters: the party brand is above 50 percent in every state but Michigan, while the individual Senate candidates, Peltola and Talarico among them, sit at 40 percent or below.
New angle: In every state but Michigan, over 50 percent call the Democratic Party too far left; only Michigan and Texas put a candidate at 40 percent. - The Dan Bongino Show, 2026-10-13 (18:56 to 20:47)
Brings Enten's 3.5-point polling error
Brings in CNN's Harry Enten to argue the 2026 Senate polls may be underestimating Republicans by 3.5 points, as they did in 2020 and 2024, and runs the math: with that error Republicans hold the Senate 52-48.
New angle: Harry Enten says 2026 Senate polls may underestimate Republicans by 3.5 points; with that error the GOP holds the Senate 52-48. - The Dan Bongino Show, 2026-10-14 (22:50 to 25:04)
Adds a pollster's private doubts on Times/Siena
Adds a new data point to the polling story: Politico reporting that a top Democratic pollster privately called the recent Times/Siena polls too rosy, plus Bongino's own read of early-voting surges in Florida and Michigan.
New angle: A top Democratic pollster privately called the recent Times/Siena polls too rosy, per Politico. - The Dan Bongino Show, 2026-10-14 (25:04 to 26:30)
Breaks down the skewed Pennsylvania poll
Plays a Frank Luntz and Leland Vittert clip on a Cold Spark poll of five Pennsylvania Senate districts, where 4x4 Democrats ran 129 percent over quota and high-propensity Republicans only 2 percent over, and argues the skew feeds a false blue-wave narrative.
New angle: Cold Spark's 892-interview Pennsylvania poll had 4x4 Democrats 129 percent over quota and high-propensity Republicans 2 percent over. - The Daily, 2026-10-15 (8:43 to 9:23)
Frames red-state polling as a turnout problem
Lerer and Cohn frame the red-state polling as a turnout problem: Trump's approval sits in the low 40s or 30s in those states, and Republican candidates are trying to distance themselves. It stays inside the numbers already on the record.