The FOMC left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.75 to 4 percent at its October 2026 meeting, citing the need for more information. Cook dissented for the first time in four years and Hammack for the third time this year, both favoring a quarter-point hike. The discussion has moved to how far the committee sits from the market and from inflation: futures price an 85 percent chance of a December hike and 66 percent for March, while Gapen says roughly 18 of 19 participants back a modest recalibration rather than consecutive hikes. Morgan Stanley expects hikes in December and March, with core PCE at 2.6 percent next year.