In the week of September 14, 2026, the European Central Bank raised its benchmark rate and the Bank of Japan was expected to hike. The turn was read as a regime change, with central bankers facing the same Middle East war, energy-price and sticky-inflation risks. By late October the picture has shifted: unrest in France rules out an ECB hike this week, while the Bank of Canada is still expected to raise rates. The Bank of Japan and Bank of England both meet this week and are expected to hold and wait. Whether the broader tightening holds is the open question.