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Halperin's midterm polling report

News · Heat 4.1 / 10 · 5 shows · 1h 51m airtime

In a Daily Mail column published September 28, 2026, Mark Halperin reported that Republican private polling shows the midterms looking like Trump's worst nightmare, with South Carolina, Mississippi and Kansas newly in play. Halperin says 45 strategists have contacted him, about half saying he understated the problem, and projects Democratic gains of at least 25 House and six Senate seats. Cook Political Report moved the Kansas Senate race from likely Republican to lean Republican, and Iowa House Republicans' own pollsters put a plus-15 district within the margin of error and a plus-10 district underwater. A University of Texas poll has Tallarico plus three, Hinojosa plus one, Rosenthal plus one and lieutenant governor plus three. Trump has transferred campaign money to…

How 5 podcasts covered it

  1. The Dan Bongino Show, 2026-09-25 (5:57 to 15:52)
    Reacts to the blue-tsunami warning
    Recaps the Daily Mail column and its blue-tsunami framing, then argues the warning should not be ignored. Bongino says he has not heard similar warnings from his own sources, and the segment stays inside reaction and turnout exhortation.
  2. Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar, 2026-09-25 (46:00 to 1:06:18)
    Adds the Texas focus group on Paxton
    Walks through the Halperin column and adds a New York Times focus group of Texas swing voters who call Paxton crooked, criminal and morally corrupt, plus a Wall Street Journal analysis of right-wing podcasters dropping Trump for the Clancy trial and Talarico.
    New angle: A New York Times focus group of Texas swing voters called Paxton crooked, criminal and morally corrupt.
  3. The Megyn Kelly Show, 2026-09-28 (3:00 to 4:42)
    Details the LaCivita backlash and the projections
    Halperin details his Daily Mail reporting on Republican private polling and the LaCivita backlash, saying 45 strategists have since contacted him and about half say he understated the problem; he projects at least 25 House and six Senate seats lost.
    New angle: Halperin says 45 strategists have contacted him, about half saying he understated the GOP's midterm problem.
  4. The Megyn Kelly Show, 2026-09-28 (5:34 to 7:43)
    Details 45 strategists and the pickup estimate
    Halperin walks through his Daily Mail reporting on the record: 45 strategists have contacted him, all agreeing or saying he understated it, and he puts the Democratic pickup at 25 House and six Senate seats. Adds the specific states now in play - South Carolina, Mississippi, Kansas, Iowa - and diesel near $6.50 a gallon.
    New angle: Halperin estimates Democrats pick up at least 25 House and six Senate seats; diesel is near $6.50 a gallon.
  5. The Megyn Kelly Show, 2026-09-28 (11:01 to 13:36)
    Walks the map from South Carolina to Kansas
    Halperin walks the specific map: Darlene Graham's inert South Carolina campaign, three tied polls there, and Cook moving Kansas from likely to lean Republican - the first named races behind the grim-polling column.
    New angle: Cook Political Report moved the Kansas Senate race from likely Republican to lean Republican.
  6. The Megyn Kelly Show, 2026-09-28 (13:59 to 16:53)
    Argues war and fuel prices drown out the fights
    Halperin and Kelly argue the war and fuel prices are drowning out Trump's fights, and that neither party is offering relief. It stays inside the midterm-outlook frame already on the record, adding no new fact.
    New angle: Trump transferred campaign money to other entities and may withhold it from candidates who distance themselves.
  7. The Megyn Kelly Show, 2026-09-28 (16:53 to 19:05)
    Adds an Iowa host's account of private polling
    Adds a new data point to the midterm-polling story: an Iowa talk show host's account of House Republicans being told by their own pollsters that a plus-15 district is within margin of error and a plus-10 district is underwater, framed as possibly worse than 2006.
    New angle: Iowa House Republicans' own pollsters told them a plus-15 district is within margin of error and a plus-10 district is underwater.
  8. Morning Wire, 2026-10-04 (3:06 to 6:08)
    Argues the 2022 map undercuts the grim polls
    Hagerty pushes back on the grim-map reporting with a 2022 comparison: the Senate was 50-50, oil was $130, Afghanistan had collapsed, and Republicans still lost a seat. He blames Democratic rule changes on early voting and ballot harvesting, and says the GOP now has the stronger national ground game.
  9. Morning Wire, 2026-10-04 (6:08 to 7:09)
    Recaps Hagerty's closing pitch on tax cuts
    Hagerty's closing pitch: Republicans are the only party that delivered policy, naming the Working Families Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, no taxes on tips, overtime or Social Security, and Trump accounts, against two Democratic shutdowns. A new claim in the midterm argument, not a retelling of the polling.
  10. The Dan Bongino Show, 2026-10-07 (59:53 to 1:24:05)
    Retells the polling-miss argument with Coglianese
    Long midterm segment with Vince Coglianese: the polling-miss thesis, Ann Selzer's 16-point Iowa whiff, Harry Enten on GOP overperformance, early-voting data, Ken Paxton's recorded gas-prices remark, and the claim Democrats abandoned voter registration drives in 2024. Retells the Halperin-era polling argument without adding to it.
  11. Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar, 2026-10-15 (42:53 to 1:03:37)
    Walks through the House map and new polls
    Logan Phillips walks through the House map: Republicans pulling money and in triage mode, a broadening Democratic target list including Kentucky's 6th, and a University of Texas poll with Tallarico plus three and Hinojosa plus one.
    New angle: A University of Texas poll has Tallarico plus three, Hinojosa plus one, Rosenthal plus one and lieutenant governor plus three.
  12. The Daily, 2026-10-28 (22:09 to 31:10)
    Tours the map state by state on distance
    Walks through the distance problem state by state: Hinson's bipartisan ad in Iowa, Salazar's immigration spot in a 70 percent Hispanic Florida district, Marshall's subtle pushback in Kansas, and Paxton's polling deficit in Texas. A reported tour of the map, but it stays inside the polling picture already on the record.
  13. The Dan Bongino Show, 2026-10-28 (6:35 to 8:41)
    Urges turnout against the blue wave
    Plays a Halperin clip arguing the blue wave is not inevitable if Republicans turn out, and urges listeners to vote. Frames the polls as a turnout-suppressing op; no new polling or reporting of its own.
  14. The Dan Bongino Show, 2026-10-28 (8:22 to 10:38)
    Retells Halperin's turnout dial argument
    Plays a Halperin clip making the turnout argument: a blue tsunami needs Democratic, independent and Republican turnout dials all turned at once, and a 5K runner who closed a 17-minute gap to one minute still lost. Retells the case for skepticism without adding a new figure.
  15. The Dan Bongino Show, 2026-10-28 (10:38 to 14:14)
    Argues polls are a psychological operation
    Argues the midterm polls are a psychological operation and that regional issue polling - no tax on tips, drug prices, Social Security, border control - could produce upsets in New York, Minnesota and Kansas. Stays inside the midterm-map frame already on the record.
  16. The Megyn Kelly Show, 2026-10-28 (1:41:36 to 1:45:01)
    Puts a number on the blue wipeout risk
    Halperin puts a number on the tail risk he has been describing all month: about a 30 percent chance of a blue wipeout, which he says could mean eight or nine Senate seats and 35 House seats. He also relays Harry Enten's point that a 3 percent polling error toward Republicans would keep the Senate in GOP hands.
    New angle: Halperin puts about a 30% chance on a blue wipeout worth eight or nine Senate seats and 35 House seats.
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