New Kansas polling released in late October 2026 shows challenger Adam Hamilton leading incumbent Roger Marshall 49 to 45, a result tied to Trump canceling a Kansas rally in favor of Florida. A Washington Post poll puts Hamilton at 52 and Marshall at 43, with 32 percent of Democrats finishing the ballot against 12 percent of Republicans. The discussion has moved from the head-to-head margin to that completion gap, which the closer reads treat as the more telling number.