# Meta earnings preview

Business · Heat 4.7 / 10 · 9 shows · 1h 24m airtime

A New Mexico state court ordered Meta on October 21 to pay $25 billion after a jury found it misled residents on data privacy. Meta reports the next day, with this year's capex range at $135-145 billion and next year's estimates near $206 billion, a high of $249 billion. It guides to $18-19 billion in 2026 Reality Labs losses and a 15-17% fourth-quarter tax rate, and will issue a non-voting share class in late January; Zuckerberg agreed to stay eight years in exchange. Its 14C filing says he could owe a multi-billion dollar tax if Proposition 40 passes, though he now says he is staying in California regardless of the vote. Off-balance-sheet commitments have risen to roughly $825 billion, and…

Page: https://boilpoints.com/point/meta_earnings_preview_977746040

## Segments

- [WSJ What's News](https://boilpoints.com/u/wsjwhatsnews), 2026-10-21, 1:03 to 2:04: **Leads with the New Mexico order against Meta**. Leads the PM edition with the New Mexico order: the jury's liability findings, Meta's vow to appeal, and the timing against record quarterly revenue and a new non-voting share class. New angle: A New Mexico judge ordered Meta to pay the state $25 billion after a jury found it liable for deceiving users.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-21, 1:35 to 3:02: **Adds the $25 billion New Mexico privacy penalty**. Previews Meta's earnings: a $10 billion state AG settlement hits this quarter and a New Mexico judge's $25 billion privacy penalty lands the day before. Frames the quarter around Muse subscription numbers and capex guidance of $130 billion to $145 billion. New angle: A New Mexico judge ordered Meta to pay a $25 billion penalty over user data and misleading privacy statements.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-21, 4:22 to 8:31: **Previews Meta capex estimates near $206 billion**. Panel preview ahead of Meta's October 22 report. Link puts next year's capex estimates around $206 billion with a high of $249 billion, and flags a rumored $30 billion equity offering; Ives argues Muse monetization could add $100 to $150 per share. New angle: Next year's Meta capex estimates run around $206 billion, with a high of $249 billion.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-21, 42:35 to 46:21: **Previews the print with Mahaney's expense call**. Evercore's Mark Mahaney previews Meta's print: Muse proved consumer appetite for an agent, but only a company with mass-market ad monetization, namely Google, can compete outside a paywall. He expects expense guidance above the street and sees the stock flat, with Amazon his top pick on AWS and Bedrock. New angle: Mahaney expects Meta to guide expenses above the street and sees the stock staying flat at 20 times earnings.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-21, 2:48 to 5:45: **Reports Meta's beat and raised capex floor**. Reports Meta's third-quarter results as they land: revenue of $64.6 billion and 26% growth beat estimates, fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $73-76 billion came in above consensus, and the low end of capex was raised to $135-145 billion. Adds a new class of non-voting stock, effectively a two-for-one split, and a GAAP EPS of $3.83 dented by the $10 billion settlement. New angle: Meta raised the low end of this year's capex range to $135-145 billion and will issue a non-voting share class in late January.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-21, 6:52 to 11:50: **Lays out three Muse monetization paths**. Jefferies analyst Brent Thill walks through the Meta quarter: Muse as a killer app pulling advertisers, the $5 billion lift to the low end of capex, and the non-voting share class as a funding tool. He lays out three Muse monetization paths but adds no new figures, staying inside the preview's frame.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-21, 31:50 to 36:29: **Questions Muse monetization and AI capex ROI**. T. Rowe Price's Tony Wang joins the Meta earnings discussion and says Muse usage is impressive but monetization is unclear, with the market needing ROI from the AI capex. He flags that demand is strong but pricing may be too high once new capacity arrives. New angle: Zuckerberg said about 25% of people who downloaded Muse use it every day.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-21, 44:06 to 46:17: **Reports Muse's numbers and the wealth tax filing**. Reports from Meta's earnings call: Zuckerberg calls Muse one of Meta's most successful launches with more than 10 million users and over $200 average spending, and a 14C filing discloses that a California wealth tax could cost him billions and has him weighing a move out of state. New angle: Meta's 14C filing says Zuckerberg could owe a multi-billion dollar tax if California's Proposition 40 passes, and he is weighing leaving the state.
- [Bloomberg Surveillance](https://boilpoints.com/u/bloombergsurveillance), 2026-10-21, 0:20 to 1:39: **Recaps the release headlines and capex range**. Reads the red headlines off Meta's Wednesday earnings release: Q4 revenue guidance of $73-76 billion above estimates, the new non-voting Class C stock, and a capex range narrowed to $135-145 billion. A quick recap of the release itself, staying inside the numbers already on the record.
- [Bloomberg Surveillance](https://boilpoints.com/u/bloombergsurveillance), 2026-10-21, 1:47 to 4:01: **Adds segment guidance and the tax rate**. Walks through the quarter's headline numbers with a Bloomberg tech host: revenue, the legal charge and adjusted EPS, and the narrowed capex range. Adds the segment-level guidance the earlier coverage did not carry - Reality Labs losses and the fourth-quarter tax rate. New angle: Meta guides to $18-19 billion in 2026 Reality Labs losses and a 15-17% fourth-quarter tax rate.
- [Bloomberg Surveillance](https://boilpoints.com/u/bloombergsurveillance), 2026-10-21, 4:03 to 5:10: **Weighs the litigation load on the stock**. Weighs whether Meta's litigation load, especially youth-related cases, moves the stock, and notes the boilerplate warning has been in filings for several quarters. A Cambridge Analytica headline from earlier in the day gets a passing mention; the segment stays inside the week's coverage.
- [Bloomberg Surveillance](https://boilpoints.com/u/bloombergsurveillance), 2026-10-21, 5:12 to 7:12: **Frames Class C as founder equity currency**. Walks through the mechanics of the Class C stock: one share per A or B share, a two-for-one split in effect, effective January 2027, and no dilution of Zuckerberg, who holds 99.8% of the class B shares and about 14% of the economics. Frames it as equity currency for the AI era that keeps the founder in place. New angle: Zuckerberg holds 99.8% of Meta's class B shares and about 14% of the economics.
- [Bloomberg Surveillance](https://boilpoints.com/u/bloombergsurveillance), 2026-10-21, 7:09 to 9:16: **Retells the Prop 40 warning and the tax bill**. Walks through the Proposition 40 warning in Meta's filing: the one-time 5% billionaire tax, Zuckerberg's equity wealth and the billions he could owe, and the filing's link between the Class C stock and keeping him at the California headquarters. Retells what the filing already put on the record.
- [The Best One Yet](https://boilpoints.com/u/thebestoneyet), 2026-10-22, 21:09 to 22:28: **Recaps the fine in a news roundup**. Runs through the Meta fine in a rapid news roundup alongside Tesla earnings and a Pokemon card theft. Recaps the $25 billion order and the Cambridge Analytica link, and adds only that the stock rose 7% after hours.
- [Prof G Markets](https://boilpoints.com/u/profgmarkets), 2026-10-22, 20:35 to 32:16: **Adds the Muse commerce figures from the call**. Evercore's Mark Mahaney walks through Meta's record quarter - 26% revenue growth, a 14% rise in price per ad, 10-12% more impressions - and the $135-145 billion capex range. Adds two figures from the earnings call: 25% of Muse users already use it for commerce, at an average price of $200. New angle: Meta says 25% of Muse users use it for commerce, at an average price of $200.
- [WSJ What's News](https://boilpoints.com/u/wsjwhatsnews), 2026-10-22, 8:04 to 10:22: **Adds the boardroom sequence behind Class C**. Adds the boardroom sequence behind the Class C stock: a public filing shows Zuckerberg told directors over the summer he was worried about the California wealth tax, and in September said he would list his house in four days, prompting the board to sign a final agreement. New angle: A filing shows Zuckerberg told the board in September he would put his house up for sale in four days.
- [Morning Brew Daily](https://boilpoints.com/u/morningbrewdaily), 2026-10-22, 7:38 to 12:36: **Breaks down the Class C voting mechanics**. Walks through the Class C mechanics: Zuckerberg's 61% voting control would fall to 53% if he sold stock to cover a Prop 40 bill, and the non-voting shares let him sell without dilution. Adds the eight-year commitment to stay in California and the first negative free cash flow since the IPO. New angle: Zuckerberg agreed to stay at Meta for eight years in exchange for the non-voting share class.
- [Big Take](https://boilpoints.com/u/bigtake), 2026-10-22, 0:03 to 1:13: **Frames the overnight swing in Meta shares**. Opens the episode on the overnight swing in Meta shares after its earnings report, from an after-hours gain to a Thursday morning selloff, and frames the hour around whether big tech is overspending or underspending on AI. Setup, not new reporting.
- [Big Take](https://boilpoints.com/u/bigtake), 2026-10-22, 3:05 to 4:50: **Puts a number on Meta's credit risk**. Puts a number on Meta's credit risk for the first time: swaps around 119 basis points against CoreWeave's over 1,000, framed as the market's read on debt-or-equity funding. Then retells the non-voting share class as a wealth-tax workaround and a dilution risk. New angle: Meta's credit default swaps sit around 119 basis points, versus over 1,000 for CoreWeave.
- [Big Take](https://boilpoints.com/u/bigtake), 2026-10-22, 6:04 to 8:36: **Pulls the Muse numbers from the earnings call**. Pulls the Muse numbers out of Meta's first post-launch earnings call: roughly 10 to 11 million users, heavy small business uptake, and a stated ambition for a network of collaborating agents. Notes the product is compute-intensive and mostly free, and that Meta cannot wait for a billion users the way it did with Instagram and WhatsApp. New angle: Meta says Muse has about 10 to 11 million users and wants a network where agents collaborate.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-22, 7:20 to 9:49: **Recaps the post-earnings reversal and analyst notes**. Boorstin's report on Meta's 7% drop recaps the post-earnings reversal: analyst notes on the equity raise, record CDS levels, negative $2 billion free cash flow and no 2027 capex guidance. It stays inside the week's coverage, adding only the Evercore and Jefferies framing.
- [The Best One Yet](https://boilpoints.com/u/thebestoneyet), 2026-10-23, 16:21 to 20:50: **Adds Zuckerberg's Wednesday California statement**. Walks through the Class C mechanics and the Prop 40 backdrop, then adds two on-the-record items: Zuckerberg's Wednesday statement that he stays in California regardless of the vote, and NYT reporting that he told the board he would list his Palo Alto house on September 13. New angle: Zuckerberg said on Wednesday he is staying in California regardless of how Prop 40 votes.
- [The Compound and Friends](https://boilpoints.com/u/thecompoundandfriends), 2026-10-23, 1:05:01 to 1:07:28: **Walks the post-earnings charts and Muse call**. Recaps the post-earnings swing from about $750 to $650 and a call dominated by Muse, then walks the charts: expenses outrunning revenue, the first negative free cash flow quarter since 2012, ad impressions up 10% and price per ad up 14%. Stays inside the week's coverage.
- [The Joe Rogan Experience](https://boilpoints.com/u/thejoeroganexperience), 2026-10-23, 2:29:28 to 2:31:16: **Reads the New Mexico order against Meta**. Picks up the New Mexico order against Meta between tangents about geofencing churches and the Cambridge Analytica fine, reading the $25 billion penalty as the cost of data harvesting. New angle: A New Mexico state court ordered Meta to pay $25 billion after a jury found it misled residents on data privacy.
- [WSJ What's News](https://boilpoints.com/u/wsjwhatsnews), 2026-10-24, 1:59 to 3:14: **Adds Meta's $825 billion in off-balance-sheet commitments**. Recaps Meta's third-quarter report and the 9.4% weekly stock drop, then puts the $825 billion in off-balance-sheet commitments on the record as up from nearly $700 billion in July, alongside the first negative free cash flow since the IPO. New angle: Meta's off-balance-sheet commitments rose to roughly $825 billion, up from nearly $700 billion in July.
- [Prof G Markets](https://boilpoints.com/u/profgmarkets), 2026-10-26, 1:02:48 to 1:14:17: **Reads Meta's 10-Q capital-raising warning**. Reads Meta's 10-Q language on capital raising as the most important line in the filing: recent raises at Alphabet, SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI have made the capital environment harder. Pairs it with the capex math - commitments imply a $3 trillion market against $1.5 trillion of big tech revenue - and argues the non-voting stock is about Zuckerberg's control and… New angle: Meta's 10-Q says recent capital raises at Alphabet, SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI have made raising capital increasingly challenging.