Michigan released early-voting totals on October 14, 2026, showing about 314,000 mail ballots cast, 48 percent Democratic and 29 percent Republican, a 3.2-point shift from 2024. Early voting is running at about two-thirds of its 2024 pace in Harris counties and about 45 percent in Trump counties. Reporting notes that late-arriving absentee ballots from Flint, Saginaw, Detroit and Ann Arbor are counted last, so late blue tranches could favor Abdul El-Sayed. The discussion weighs whether the Democratic lead holds as overall turnout lags, and whether disaffected Democrats in Detroit turn out for El-Sayed against Mike Rogers.