A Real Clear Politics average through October 18, 2026 put Abdul El-Sayed at 48 and Mike Rogers at 46.3 in the Michigan Senate race. Later polls widened the gap: a Fox News survey had El-Sayed ahead 77-22 with Black voters while Rogers reached 22 percent, twice his 2024 share; a Detroit News poll had it 51-45; a CNN poll released October 29 had El-Sayed up seven and a Glengar poll up six. The discussion weighs Rogers's climb against his narrow loss last time and El-Sayed's Detroit outreach, while Kalshi has El-Sayed at 7 percent and Rogers at 30.