This page requires JavaScript to display.

Michigan Senate polling

News · Heat 5.4 / 10 · 3 shows · 15m airtime

A Real Clear Politics average through October 18, 2026 put Abdul El-Sayed at 48 and Mike Rogers at 46.3 in the Michigan Senate race. Later polls widened the gap: a Fox News survey had El-Sayed ahead 77-22 with Black voters while Rogers reached 22 percent, twice his 2024 share; a Detroit News poll had it 51-45; a CNN poll released October 29 had El-Sayed up seven and a Glengar poll up six. The discussion weighs Rogers's climb against his narrow loss last time and El-Sayed's Detroit outreach, while Kalshi has El-Sayed at 7 percent and Rogers at 30.

How 3 podcasts covered it

  1. Ruthless Podcast, 2026-10-23 (41:36 to 45:01)
    Opens the Michigan Senate polling average
    Opens a new race: the Michigan Senate polling average, where El-Sayed is pinned at 48 and Rogers has climbed to 46.3. Weighs it against Rogers's 0.34-point loss to Slotkin, El-Sayed's Detroit outreach and a coming Obama rally.
    New angle: The Real Clear Politics average through October 18 had El-Sayed at 48 and Rogers at 46.3.
  2. The Fox News Rundown, 2026-10-25 (25:30 to 26:40)
    Argues El-Sayed is likely to underperform
    Kraushaar argues El-Sayed's narrow, statistically tied lead in a state that has not elected a Republican senator in years means he is likely to underperform most Democrats. Opinion and framing on the Michigan race, with no new polling or development.
  3. The Fox News Rundown, 2026-10-28 (2:37 to 7:38)
    Reads the Fox poll crosstabs on turnout
    Brings a Republican strategist on to read the Fox News poll's crosstabs: Rogers at 22 percent with Black voters, double his 2024 share, El-Sayed up 10 with women and 77-22 with Black voters, Rogers ahead with men and rural voters. Frames it as a turnout question and notes CNN reporting El-Sayed has had no contact with Haley Stevens.
    New angle: A Fox News poll has Rogers at 22 percent with Black voters, twice his 2024 share, and El-Sayed ahead 77-22.
  4. The Fox News Rundown, 2026-10-29 (20:06 to 22:47)
    Adds a Detroit News poll for El-Sayed
    Brings a fresh Detroit News poll into the Michigan Senate polling record: El-Sayed 51, Rogers 45, with Schoen calling the race lean Democrat and saying the Israel and Muslim Brotherhood attacks are not landing.
    New angle: A Detroit News poll has El-Sayed at 51 and Rogers at 45.
  5. Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar, 2026-10-29 (17:59 to 20:35)
    Reports the polls El-Sayed cites himself
    Interviews El-Sayed five days out, and he puts a number on the race himself: a CNN poll out that morning has him up seven, a Glengar poll six. He says the campaign is running like it is ten points down and names affordability and health care as what voters raise.
    New angle: A CNN poll released that morning had El-Sayed up seven points; a Glengar poll had him up six.
Unpacking...