# Michigan Senate polling

News · Heat 5.3 / 10 · 3 shows · 15m airtime

A Real Clear Politics average through October 18, 2026 put Abdul El-Sayed at 48 and Mike Rogers at 46.3 in the Michigan Senate race. Later polls widened the gap: a Fox News survey had El-Sayed ahead 77-22 with Black voters while Rogers reached 22 percent, twice his 2024 share; a Detroit News poll had it 51-45; a CNN poll released October 29 had El-Sayed up seven and a Glengar poll up six. The discussion weighs Rogers's climb against his narrow loss last time and El-Sayed's Detroit outreach, while Kalshi has El-Sayed at 7 percent and Rogers at 30.

Page: https://boilpoints.com/point/michigan_senate_polling_3071748995

## Segments

- [Ruthless Podcast](https://boilpoints.com/u/ruthlesspodcast), 2026-10-23, 41:36 to 45:01: **Opens the Michigan Senate polling average**. Opens a new race: the Michigan Senate polling average, where El-Sayed is pinned at 48 and Rogers has climbed to 46.3. Weighs it against Rogers's 0.34-point loss to Slotkin, El-Sayed's Detroit outreach and a coming Obama rally. New angle: The Real Clear Politics average through October 18 had El-Sayed at 48 and Rogers at 46.3.
- [The Fox News Rundown](https://boilpoints.com/u/thefoxnewsrundown), 2026-10-25, 25:30 to 26:40: **Argues El-Sayed is likely to underperform**. Kraushaar argues El-Sayed's narrow, statistically tied lead in a state that has not elected a Republican senator in years means he is likely to underperform most Democrats. Opinion and framing on the Michigan race, with no new polling or development.
- [The Fox News Rundown](https://boilpoints.com/u/thefoxnewsrundown), 2026-10-28, 2:37 to 7:38: **Reads the Fox poll crosstabs on turnout**. Brings a Republican strategist on to read the Fox News poll's crosstabs: Rogers at 22 percent with Black voters, double his 2024 share, El-Sayed up 10 with women and 77-22 with Black voters, Rogers ahead with men and rural voters. Frames it as a turnout question and notes CNN reporting El-Sayed has had no contact with Haley Stevens. New angle: A Fox News poll has Rogers at 22 percent with Black voters, twice his 2024 share, and El-Sayed ahead 77-22.
- [The Fox News Rundown](https://boilpoints.com/u/thefoxnewsrundown), 2026-10-29, 20:06 to 22:47: **Adds a Detroit News poll for El-Sayed**. Brings a fresh Detroit News poll into the Michigan Senate polling record: El-Sayed 51, Rogers 45, with Schoen calling the race lean Democrat and saying the Israel and Muslim Brotherhood attacks are not landing. New angle: A Detroit News poll has El-Sayed at 51 and Rogers at 45.
- [Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar](https://boilpoints.com/u/breakingpointswithkrystalandsaagar), 2026-10-29, 17:59 to 20:35: **Reports the polls El-Sayed cites himself**. Interviews El-Sayed five days out, and he puts a number on the race himself: a CNN poll out that morning has him up seven, a Glengar poll six. He says the campaign is running like it is ten points down and names affordability and health care as what voters raise. New angle: A CNN poll released that morning had El-Sayed up seven points; a Glengar poll had him up six.