Minnesota's open Senate race between Peggy Flanagan and Michelle Tafoya was polling tight as of early October 2026. Tafoya tied Flanagan to state fraud allegations, said Minnesota lost $9 billion to fraud, and backed the SAVE Act and the Deporting Fraudsters Act; a Star Tribune/KARE 11 poll had Flanagan up four but Tafoya leading independents 38 to 32 with 29 percent undecided. The Cook Political Report shifted to favor Tafoya, and Fox News power rankings moved the race from likely Democrat to lean Democrat. A later poll now has Flanagan at 54 and Tafoya at 40, far wider than the earlier three- or four-point margins, though Nate Cohn warns the result may not generalize because Minnesota is the only state…