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Minnesota Senate race tightens

News · Heat 6.1 / 10 · 7 shows · 57m airtime

Minnesota's open Senate race between Peggy Flanagan and Michelle Tafoya was polling tight as of early October 2026. Tafoya tied Flanagan to state fraud allegations, said Minnesota lost $9 billion to fraud, and backed the SAVE Act and the Deporting Fraudsters Act; a Star Tribune/KARE 11 poll had Flanagan up four but Tafoya leading independents 38 to 32 with 29 percent undecided. The Cook Political Report shifted to favor Tafoya, and Fox News power rankings moved the race from likely Democrat to lean Democrat. A later poll now has Flanagan at 54 and Tafoya at 40, far wider than the earlier three- or four-point margins, though Nate Cohn warns the result may not generalize because Minnesota is the only state…

How 7 podcasts covered it

  1. Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar, 2026-09-30 (14:01 to 15:00)
    Notes Sanders funding Flanagan, Ellison and Nixon
    Brief segment on the Minnesota Senate race: Tafoya is running tight and has not been bear-hugging Trump, and Sanders is putting his own money behind Flanagan, Ellison and Nixon.
    New angle: Bernie Sanders is spending from his fund to back Peggy Flanagan, Keith Ellison and Angie Nixon.
  2. The NPR Politics Podcast, 2026-10-06 (0:59 to 4:04)
    Opens with Minnesota's tightening Senate race
    Opens with Minnesota's tightening open Senate race: Flanagan versus Tafoya, the state's long Republican drought in statewide races, narrowing presidential margins, and fraud and immigration as the defining issues.
    New angle: Minnesota's open Senate race is polling tight, with Tafoya tying Flanagan to state fraud allegations.
  3. The NPR Politics Podcast, 2026-10-06 (4:08 to 5:22)
    Recaps the fraud attack in Minnesota
    Recaps the fraud line of attack in the Minnesota Senate race, with Tafoya pressing the issue and Flanagan saying she was not as responsible as others in the administration. Stays inside the framing already on the record.
  4. The Fox News Rundown, 2026-10-08 (14:21 to 26:01)
    Interviews Tafoya on her own campaign
    Tafoya, the Republican nominee, goes on the record on her own campaign: pro-choice with a three-month limit, no federal abortion ban, support for the SAVE Act and the Deporting Fraudsters Act, and a $9 billion fraud figure for Minnesota.
    New angle: Tafoya says Minnesota lost $9 billion to fraud and backs the SAVE Act and the Deporting Fraudsters Act.
  5. The Megyn Kelly Show, 2026-10-14 (2:31 to 8:09)
    Cites new poll showing a dead heat
    Goes to the new Star Tribune/KARE 11 poll and finds the race a dead heat inside the margin: Flanagan up four overall but trailing Tafoya 38 to 32 among independents, with 29 percent undecided. Adds the Kalshi line, the collapse in outside spending, Thune's visit and Trump's Youngstown endorsement.
    New angle: A Star Tribune/KARE 11 poll has Flanagan up four, but Tafoya leads independents 38 to 32 with 29 percent undecided.
  6. The Fox News Rundown, 2026-10-15 (1:11 to 10:33)
    Interviews a strategist on the tightening race
    Interviews Republican strategist Colin Reed on the tightening Minnesota Senate race, walking through the new Star Tribune poll and the state's Democratic history. A retelling of the same poll already on the record, with the fraud allegations and Walz retirement as background.
  7. Up First, 2026-10-17 (12:50 to 17:33)
    Recaps the Senate race after the debate
    Minnesota Public Radio's Peter Cox walks through the Senate race after the debate: Flanagan's four-point poll edge, Tafoya's Trump distance, the fraud convictions and the immigration surge. A scene-setter that stays inside the polling and fraud record already on the card.
  8. Pod Save America, 2026-10-18 (1:02:19 to 1:06:01)
    Follows the $14 million anti-Klobuchar ad spend
    Amy Walter's follow-the-money read on Minnesota: Republicans are spending zero there, but about $14 million has gone into ads against Amy Klobuchar in the governor's race, all on the Somali welfare fraud scandal, and Flanagan can be tied to it as lieutenant governor.
    New angle: About $14 million has been spent against Amy Klobuchar in the Minnesota governor's race, all on the Somali welfare fraud scandal.
  9. Morning Wire, 2026-10-22 (5:38 to 7:27)
    Reports Cook flipping its Minnesota rating
    Reports that the Cook Political Report has flipped its rating to favor Tafoya, with Tafoya at about 43 percent and roughly three points behind Flanagan, while Polymarket still favors Flanagan. Credits a fiery debate in which Tafoya hammered Flanagan on the fraud scandal.
    New angle: The Cook Political Report now favors Tafoya in Minnesota, a shift from its likely-Democrat rating.
  10. The Fox News Rundown, 2026-10-26 (7:49 to 9:54)
    Adds Emmer's prediction on the Senate race
    Emmer, asked about the fraud scandals, predicts Tafoya may take the Senate seat and says a longtime Flanagan friend was stripped of Medicaid billing privileges while under fraud investigation - a specific allegation not yet on the record.
    New angle: Emmer says a 25-year friend of Flanagan lost her Medicaid billing privileges amid a fraud investigation.
  11. The Fox News Rundown, 2026-10-27 (0:11 to 2:27)
    Recaps the race and replays debate clips
    Opens the battleground Minnesota special a week before the midterms, recapping the Flanagan-Tafoya Senate race and replaying post-debate clips of Tafoya calling Flanagan complicit in the fraud scandal and Flanagan calling for harsher penalties and distancing from Trump. Setup and retelling, no new reporting.
  12. The Fox News Rundown, 2026-10-27 (2:19 to 3:50)
    Adds voter color from St. Cloud and the suburbs
    A Fox News Digital columnist reports five days in St. Cloud and the Minneapolis suburbs, where voters raised the Somali fraud scandal unprompted. It is on-the-ground color for the fraud-as-issue frame the show has already run, with no new poll, filing or statement.
  13. The Fox News Rundown, 2026-10-27 (4:01 to 4:59)
    Reports a group launching at the Petty site
    Reports from Minnesota that the ICE issue has faded since the Alex Petty death, with DHS pullback under Markwayne Mullen. Notes a group launching at the Petty site in Minneapolis seven days before the election to try to revive it.
    New angle: An organization launches at the Alex Petty site in Minneapolis seven days before the election.
  14. The Fox News Rundown, 2026-10-27 (6:12 to 7:20)
    Notes Trump skipped Minnesota and Maine rallies
    Marcus notes Trump has held rallies nationwide but has not appeared in Minnesota or Maine, where Tafoya and Collins have distanced themselves from him, and says Trump has let the breaks go unpunished. Reads the race as very close.
    New angle: Trump has not campaigned in Minnesota or Maine, and has not attacked Tafoya or Collins for distancing from him.
  15. The Fox News Rundown, 2026-10-27 (9:11 to 10:36)
    Reports Fox moving the race to lean Democrat
    Melugin reports a second ratings shift: Fox News power rankings moved the Minnesota Senate race from likely Democrat to lean Democrat, with Tafoya near the margin of error. Marcus credits fraud and candidate quality, citing Tony Dungy's endorsement the day before.
    New angle: Fox News power rankings moved the Minnesota Senate race from likely Democrat to lean Democrat.
  16. The Fox News Rundown, 2026-10-29 (9:47 to 11:20)
    Argues fraud is the issue to run on
    Hewitt argues fraud is the issue Republicans should run on, citing the $9 billion Minnesota estimate and California's high-speed rail overruns, and names Tafoya as the likeliest upset. Retells the fraud framing already on the record.
  17. Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar, 2026-10-29 (15:23 to 16:48)
    Works through a new Minnesota poll
    Works through a new Minnesota poll showing Flanagan up 54 to 40, arguing it is plausible against a D plus 11 generic ballot and noting neither party is spending like the race is close.
    New angle: A new Minnesota poll has Flanagan at 54 and Tafoya at 40, far wider than earlier three- or four-point margins.
  18. Pod Save America, 2026-10-30 (22:46 to 25:06)
    Works through Cohn's canary-in-the-coal-mine caveat
    Takes up the Times/Siena Minnesota poll showing Flanagan up 14 and works through Nate Cohn's canary-in-the-coal-mine caveat: Minnesota is the only state without party registration in the voter file. Dan argues 14 points is roughly what a plus-10 environment plus Harris's four-point 2024 margin should produce.
    New angle: Nate Cohn warns the Minnesota poll could be a canary in the coal mine because Minnesota is the only state without party registration in the voter file.
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