# Moderna cancer vaccine leak

Lifestyle · Heat 10.0 / 10 · 3 shows · 27m airtime

On October 2, 2026, embargoed phase three results for Moderna's mRNA cancer therapy, given with Merck's Keytruda, leaked two days before a scheduled presentation via Oncology Central. The trial of 1,137 patients succeeded, but the reduction in recurrence or death came in at 42% versus 49% in phase two, and Moderna stock fell 26% intraday before closing down 18%. Discussion has settled on that gap as the number behind the selloff, with later reads framing the same data as a roughly 40% reduction in melanoma spread risk versus standard immunotherapy. A separate thread now covers a trader who sold Moderna calls at a loss and put roughly $500,000 into puts hours before the leak.

Page: https://boilpoints.com/point/moderna_cancer_vaccine_leak_2631450642

## Segments

- [TBPN](https://boilpoints.com/u/tbpn), 2026-10-23, 1:31 to 7:09: **Walks through the leaked phase three data**. Walks through the leaked phase three data and the phase two anchor: the 49% relative risk reduction versus 42% in the larger trial, the six-month onset, and the 26% intraday plunge. Frames it as a miss against investor expectations, not a failed trial. New angle: The leaked phase three data showed a 42% reduction in recurrence or death, below phase two's 49%.
- [TBPN](https://boilpoints.com/u/tbpn), 2026-10-23, 7:13 to 12:47: **Retells the influencer's Moderna trade**. Tells the Togi story: the influencer's dream-driven Moderna calls, his $200,000 drawdown, and the flip to puts hours before the leak-driven crash. A colorful retelling of the fallout that stays inside the leak narrative.
- [WSJ What's News](https://boilpoints.com/u/wsjwhatsnews), 2026-10-23, 8:25 to 11:00: **Explains the leak behind the selloff**. Explains the investor disappointment by tracing it to August, when Merck and Moderna said the trial met two goals without releasing data, and sets the 40% spread-risk reduction against a $240 billion oncology market. Notes the approval filing and launch timeline could slip. New angle: The leaked data showed a roughly 40% reduction in melanoma spread risk versus standard immunotherapy.
- [TBPN](https://boilpoints.com/u/tbpn), 2026-10-23, 1:16 to 6:36: **Breaks down the leaked trial numbers**. Walks through the leak and the numbers behind the selloff: the phase 3 trial of 1,137 patients succeeded but delivered a 42% reduction in recurrence risk against phase 2's 49%, and the treatment only starts working after six months. Frames it against Moderna's long Theranos-era skepticism. New angle: The leaked phase 3 data showed a 42% reduction in recurrence risk, below the 49% from phase 2.
- [TBPN](https://boilpoints.com/u/tbpn), 2026-10-23, 6:49 to 12:29: **Adds the trader who flipped to puts**. Picks up the Moderna leak from the trading side: influencer Togi flipped his calls to puts hours before the crash, freeing roughly $500,000, and calls the timing a giga stroke of luck. A new first-hand account of the plunge, not new trial data. New angle: Togi sold his Moderna calls at a loss and put roughly $500,000 into puts hours before the leak.
- [The Readout Loud](https://boilpoints.com/u/thereadoutloud), 2026-10-30, 6:09 to 8:30: **Recaps the embargo break and the sell-off**. Recaps the embargo break and the sell-off, framing the drop as a market reaction after Moderna added about $60 billion in market value since August, not a verdict on the data. Stays inside the leak coverage already on the record.