On September 10, West Texas Intermediate crude rose above $100 a barrel and Brent reached $107 as Middle East oil shipments fell 65 percent from a year earlier. The discussion has moved from the initial spike to the physical market: dated Brent trades around $130, a composite tracker of 15 shipping routes puts costs near $18 a barrel, up from under $4, and the IEA says inventories have fallen 507 million barrels since the conflict began. Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for an end to the blockade, and October rate-hike odds on Kalshi climbed to 70 percent. Iran has since sunk a container ship in Hormuz, the U.S. is evacuating non-emergency government employees…