# Oil tops $100

Business · Heat 3.0 / 10 · 8 shows · 2h 0m airtime

On September 10, West Texas Intermediate crude rose above $100 a barrel and Brent reached $107 as Middle East oil shipments fell 65 percent from a year earlier. The discussion has moved from the initial spike to the physical market: dated Brent trades around $130, a composite tracker of 15 shipping routes puts costs near $18 a barrel, up from under $4, and the IEA says inventories have fallen 507 million barrels since the conflict began. Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for an end to the blockade, and October rate-hike odds on Kalshi climbed to 70 percent. Iran has since sunk a container ship in Hormuz, the U.S. is evacuating non-emergency government employees…

Page: https://boilpoints.com/point/oil_tops_100_291322324

## Segments

- [Marketplace](https://boilpoints.com/u/marketplace), 2026-09-09, 1:29 to 4:47: **Breaks down oil above $100 and yields**. Market reaction segment: oil above $100 after U.S. strikes on Iranian tankers, two-year Treasury yield at its highest since July 2024, with strategists explaining the short-end versus long-end split. New angle: Oil passed $100 a barrel after U.S. attacks on Iranian oil tankers; the two-year Treasury yield hit its highest since July 2024.
- [Prof G Markets](https://boilpoints.com/u/profgmarkets), 2026-09-10, 1:45 to 2:13: **Reports Brent above $101 and yields at highs**. Opens the September 10 episode with the prior day's market moves: Brent tops $101 for the first time since May, ten-year yields hit their highest since 2023 after the Treasury tripled buybacks to $6 billion, and rate-hike odds on Calci climb to 57 percent. New angle: Ten-year Treasury yields hit their highest since 2023 after the Treasury tripled debt buybacks to $6 billion; rate-hike odds on Calci rose to 57 percent.
- [Marketplace](https://boilpoints.com/u/marketplace), 2026-09-10, 1:25 to 4:09: **Reports crude above $100 and shipment drops**. Reports U.S. crude above $100 and Brent at $107, with Middle East shipments down 65 percent, and gathers analyst forecasts of $100 oil never below $90 into 2027. New angle: Middle East oil shipments are down 65 percent from a year ago.
- [Prof G Markets](https://boilpoints.com/u/profgmarkets), 2026-09-11, 29:44 to 31:21: **Argues oil matters less than Fed messaging**. Katie Martin takes the oil-bond link directly: Brent near $100, but U.S. energy self-sufficiency and contained inflation expectations mean fiscal and Fed messaging matter more than crude. A reaction that stays inside the existing Hormuz coverage.
- [Prof G Markets](https://boilpoints.com/u/profgmarkets), 2026-09-14, 5:56 to 28:19: **Prices the rate-hike odds and bond yields**. Extends the oil-shock story into the inflation and bond market: the 30-year yield at its highest since 2007, the 10-year through 4.9%, and a September rate-hike probability of 65% on Kalshi, up from 15% in June. Also prices the war's food and diesel pass-through. New angle: September rate-hike odds on Kalshi rose to 65%, up from 15% in June.
- [The Journal.](https://boilpoints.com/u/thejournal), 2026-09-21, 0:05 to 1:46: **Reports the buffers are exhausted**. Reports from the oil beat that the buffers holding prices below worst case are exhausted: strategic reserves tapped, sanctioned oil released, and executives at a conference saying this is the inflection point. Adds the tank-bottoms warning to a file that had only price and rate levels.
- [The Journal.](https://boilpoints.com/u/thejournal), 2026-09-21, 3:40 to 5:59: **Walks through the three buffers on crude**. Walks through the three buffers that kept crude under $100: the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the March move letting refiners buy sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil, and China pulling back about three million barrels a day of imports.
- [The Journal.](https://boilpoints.com/u/thejournal), 2026-09-21, 11:06 to 12:09: **Turns to Venezuela and the diesel squeeze**. Turns to the supply side of the price spike: the administration's Venezuela talk, and why the reserves there are years and billions of dollars from mattering. Adds the diesel-specific squeeze - Russia is the world's second-largest diesel exporter - and the only small hopes left. New angle: Venezuelan production would take years and billions in investment before it meaningfully ramps up.
- [The Journal.](https://boilpoints.com/u/thejournal), 2026-09-21, 13:13 to 15:40: **Goes to a farmer absorbing fuel costs**. Goes to businesses absorbing fuel costs rather than passing them on: a third-generation Pennsylvania farmer who has raised beef prices once in five years is eating 15 to 20 percent higher hay trucking costs, and farmers pay energy costs three or more times over. New angle: Pennsylvania farmer Jim Barber's hay trucking costs are up 15 to 20 percent; he has raised beef prices once in five years.
- [The Journal.](https://boilpoints.com/u/thejournal), 2026-09-21, 16:42 to 17:39: **Profiles a maker passing resin costs along**. Profiles Ambix, a plastic-components maker whose resin costs rose 30 to 50 percent; it now passes a 60-cent supplier hike straight to customers, a concrete example of oil costs embedding in the economy. New angle: Ambix's resin costs rose 30 to 50 percent and it now passes a 60-cent supplier hike to customers.
- [Prof G Markets](https://boilpoints.com/u/profgmarkets), 2026-09-23, 2:52 to 13:43: **Reads the swing and the diesel export math**. Kpler's Matt Smith reads the prior day's swing - Brent down 3% to $97 on Saudi pipeline-restart hopes, back above $100 after Trump's UN speech, settling at $98 - and adds the diesel export math: the U.S. is about 20% of global waterborne diesel exports, Russia and the Middle East about 10% each. New angle: The U.S. accounts for about 20% of global waterborne diesel exports; Russia and the Middle East about 10% each.
- [Prof G Markets](https://boilpoints.com/u/profgmarkets), 2026-09-24, 1:43 to 2:38: **Opens with the day's market vitals**. Opens with the day's market vitals: Brent above $103, the 10-year yield above 5.1% at a 19-year high, the 30-year back to 2004 levels, and the 5-year breaching 5% for the first time since before the financial crisis - even after the Treasury's $6 billion buyback. New angle: The 10-year Treasury yield ripped above 5.1% to a fresh 19-year high, and the 5-year breached 5% for the first time since before the financial crisis.
- [Prof G Markets](https://boilpoints.com/u/profgmarkets), 2026-09-24, 23:44 to 30:36: **Interviews Baer on the U.S.-Iran talks**. Interviews former OSCE ambassador Daniel Baer on the U.S.-Iran talks: even a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would take time to clear the backlog and rebuild shipping trust, with added insurance or tolling costs keeping crude above pre-war levels.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-09-24, 4:32 to 7:14: **Reads the physical market's WTI-Brent spread**. Pippa Stevens reads the intraday swing on reports of a phased U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the strait, then goes to the physical market: the WTI-Brent spread above $12, Brent's front-month premium over the second month above $6, and natural gas up 9 percent on a Columbia pipeline compressor outage and a light storage injection. New angle: The WTI-Brent spread is now more than $12, and Brent's front-month premium over the second month is more than $6.
- [WSJ What's News](https://boilpoints.com/u/wsjwhatsnews), 2026-09-25, 3:09 to 4:16: **Reports the phased Hormuz deal and inventory drop**. Reports that Iranian and U.S. negotiators are working a phased deal to reopen Hormuz in exchange for lifting the blockade, and cites an IEA figure on inventories down 507 million barrels since the conflict began. New angle: The IEA says oil inventories have fallen 507 million barrels since the conflict began.
- [WSJ What's News](https://boilpoints.com/u/wsjwhatsnews), 2026-09-25, 4:29 to 5:40: **Adds the shape of Iran's seven-day lull offer**. Benoit Faucon adds the shape of Iran's offer: a seven-day lull with no attacks, not just a reopening, and reports that neither side is on the same page, with Trump unwilling to compromise before the midterms. New angle: Iran's proposal is a seven-day lull with no attacks in exchange for reopening Hormuz and lifting the blockade.
- [Marketplace](https://boilpoints.com/u/marketplace), 2026-09-25, 16:11 to 17:56: **Reports Iran's Hormuz offer and falling crude**. Reads the day's numbers and reports a concrete next step in the oil story: Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in seven days if the U.S. lifts its port blockade, and crude has fallen on the talks - Brent to $104, WTI to about $92. New angle: Iran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz in seven days if the U.S. ends its blockade of Iranian ports.
- [Bloomberg Surveillance](https://boilpoints.com/u/bloombergsurveillance), 2026-09-26, 15:47 to 16:18: **Reports oil slipping to $101 on diplomacy hopes**. One minute on the oil tape: crude slips to $101 on hopes of a diplomatic end to the Iran war, lifting stocks intraday. A fresh price point and a fresh driver, not a retelling of the week's coverage. New angle: Oil fell to $101 a barrel on hopes of a diplomatic end to the Iran war, turning major indexes green intraday.
- [WSJ What's News](https://boilpoints.com/u/wsjwhatsnews), 2026-09-28, 3:21 to 4:47: **Reports Trump's rejection and Iran's strait losses**. Reports Trump's rejection of Tehran's truce offer and his UN remark that he is weighing whether to annihilate Iran's government, plus Arachi's readiness for war or diplomacy. Adds the US and Gulf officials' assessment that Iran is losing control of the strait. New angle: US and Gulf officials say Iran is losing control of the Strait of Hormuz.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-09-28, 39:59 to 46:19: **Retells the week's oil and rates story**. Market-zone segment on rates and oil: WTI's session high of $96.54, Trump's rejection of Iran's offer per the Journal, and Saudi pipeline restart, plus TLT options positioning and energy-sector breadth. Retells the week's oil story and stays inside it.
- [Prof G Markets](https://boilpoints.com/u/profgmarkets), 2026-09-29, 2:18 to 2:59: **Reads the market vitals after Hormuz rejection**. Reads the September 29 market vitals: Trump rejected Iran's Hormuz proposal over the weekend, Brent spiked to $108 before settling near $105, the 10-year hit another 52-week high and October hike odds on Kalshi rose to 70%. New angle: Trump rejected Iran's Strait of Hormuz proposal over the weekend; October rate-hike odds on Kalshi climbed to 70%.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-01, 4:54 to 7:38: **Adds shipping costs and dated Brent to the $100 call**. Reports Brent back above $100 on a WSJ story that the U.S. is preparing a third carrier strike group and up to 10,000 more troops, with renewed strikes on Iran possible after the midterms. Adds shipping-cost and dated-Brent figures not yet on the record. New angle: A composite tracker of 15 shipping routes puts costs near $18 a barrel, up from under $4; dated Brent traded at $120.
- [FT News Briefing](https://boilpoints.com/u/ftnewsbriefing), 2026-10-07, 4:27 to 8:00: **Reports Hormuz captain pay and attacks**. Goes to the labor market on the high seas: captains transiting the Strait of Hormuz earn up to $100,000 a month plus a $50,000 per-trip bonus, ratings four to six times normal pay, against at least 14 attacks since September 20 and war-risk insurance at 6 to 10 percent of hull value. New angle: Captains transiting Hormuz are paid up to $100,000 a month plus a $50,000 per-trip bonus; at least 14 vessels attacked since September 20.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-08, 14:01 to 15:46: **Unpacks the dated Brent gap and tanker rates**. Pippa Stevens unpacks the dated-versus-physical Brent gap and the mechanics behind record tanker rates: ship-to-ship transfers out of Hormuz need twice the ships for the same barrels, and Maersk has added emergency fuel surcharges in parts of Europe. New angle: Dated Brent trades around $130; ship-to-ship transfers out of Hormuz require double the ships.
- [Marketplace](https://boilpoints.com/u/marketplace), 2026-10-08, 16:36 to 17:27: **Adds the Hormuz attacks to the oil story**. Market numbers segment that folds in a fresh leg of the oil story: new attacks in the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent as high as $105 and WTI up nearly 4.75% to $92. Also flags a Food and Water Watch report on water bills, a separate thread. New angle: New attacks in the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent as high as $105 and WTI up nearly 4.75% to $92.
- [FT News Briefing](https://boilpoints.com/u/ftnewsbriefing), 2026-10-09, 4:09 to 5:06: **Reports Trump ruling out a strike before midterms**. Reports Trump saying Washington will not strike Iran before next month's midterms, as Iran steps up attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices surge to their highest level this month. New angle: Trump said Washington will not strike Iran before next month's midterm elections.
- [Squawk Pod](https://boilpoints.com/u/squawkpod), 2026-10-12, 18:54 to 29:53: **Puts numbers on the shipping squeeze**. Sullivan explains why futures are not up more despite the Riyadh attack, then puts hard numbers on the shipping squeeze: a Houston-to-China charter at $76 million, or $38 a barrel, against a normal $7 to $10 million. Also flags record global refining margins and half of Russian refining capacity offline. New angle: A Houston-to-China charter costs $76 million, $38 a barrel, versus a normal $7 to $10 million.
- [Squawk Pod](https://boilpoints.com/u/squawkpod), 2026-10-13, 23:17 to 24:55: **Forecasts another $20 to $25 in oil**. Jones gives his oil trade between other stories: long, expecting another $20 to $25 rally, and assumes Trump has a plan for the oil market and Iran once the midterms pass. A forecast, not a development in the story.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-16, 4:09 to 6:39: **Adds the Hormuz sinking and Brent's golden cross**. Midday oil surge segment: Iran sank a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz in the last few days, Ukraine vowed to keep hitting Russian refining, and the Houthis stepped up attacks on Saudi infrastructure. Adds a technical marker - Brent's weekly golden cross, seen only five times in 30 years. New angle: Iran sank a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz in the last few days.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-22, 22:21 to 23:25: **Reports oil above $100 and Saudi evacuations**. Reports oil back above $100 at a five-month high on escalation fears, adding three developments to the record: the U.S. is evacuating non-emergency government staff from Saudi Arabia, Trump says there are no negotiations with Iran, and the Times reports U.S. and Israeli plans for post-midterm strikes. New angle: The U.S. is evacuating non-emergency government employees from Saudi Arabia; the Times reports U.S. and Israeli plans for post-midterm strikes.
- [WSJ What's News](https://boilpoints.com/u/wsjwhatsnews), 2026-10-22, 2:52 to 4:26: **Reports Brent's close above $113**. Reports the day's close: Brent up 4 percent above $113, its highest since May, even as more oil leaves the Persian Gulf than before the war. Explains the split between falling physical cargo prices and a futures risk premium tied to post-midterm fighting. New angle: Brent settled above $113, its highest close since May, as physical cargo prices fall and futures carry a post-midterm risk premium.
- [Marketplace](https://boilpoints.com/u/marketplace), 2026-10-22, 1:35 to 2:31: **Recaps the day's market tape**. Opens with a two-minute market wrap: tech selloff on debt-funded capex, Middle East shooting pushing traders into Treasuries, and Brent up almost 4% to near $113. A recap of the day's tape that stays inside the week's oil coverage.
- [Marketplace](https://boilpoints.com/u/marketplace), 2026-10-22, 2:05 to 4:30: **Reports the physical shipping cost of crude**. Turns from the futures price to the physical cost of the war: a crude cargo to China now runs $35 to $40 a barrel against $2 to $3 before, and the IMF warns stockpiles are too thin to buffer new disruptions. Adds a fresh supply shock, the Exxon Joliet outage, pushing Great Lakes gasoline toward $5. New angle: Shipping a crude cargo to China now costs $35 to $40 a barrel, up from $2 to $3.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-23, 14:28 to 15:37: **Reports Brent's intraday spike to $117.45**. Reports the day's move: Brent spiking to $117.45 intraday on escalation fears, with Iranian state media talking up asymmetric warfare and Trump saying there are no negotiations. Adds European gas at a near four-year high and Barclays' inflation warning. New angle: Brent hit an intraday high of $117.45, about $10 below its April post-war peak of $126.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-23, 9:18 to 11:57: **Updates the move and flags a diesel cargo**. Updates the oil point with a fresh intraday move: Brent above $117, the highest since late April and $10 off the post-war high of $126. Also flags the first Russian diesel cargo bound for the U.S. in over three years, now reflagged to an unknown destination, and transport costs up to $45 a barrel. New angle: Brent rose above $117 intraday, $10 below the post-war high of $126.
- [Bloomberg Surveillance](https://boilpoints.com/u/bloombergsurveillance), 2026-10-29, 13:09 to 22:17: **Explains why crude holds near $114**. Ed Morse explains why crude stays near $114 with Hormuz closed: uncertainty over post-midterm U.S. strikes, a refining system that cannot make enough diesel, and inventories at roughly a decade low in days of forward demand cover. Frames it against 1978-82 and the 1973 embargo, arguing lower oil intensity of GDP has muted the price response. New angle: Inventories are at roughly a decade low in days of forward demand cover, harsher on products than crude.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-30, 27:34 to 30:33: **Reports Brent topping $118 and falling output**. Pippa Stevens reports Brent topping $118 with four straight weeks of gains, and puts a number on the supply side: output around 12 million barrels a day, down from 17 million a couple of weeks ago. Also carries Exxon's Darren Woods splitting the product crunch into thirds. New angle: Oil output is about 12 million barrels a day, down from 17 million a couple of weeks ago.