# OpenAI and Anthropic IPO economics

Business · Heat 5.3 / 10 · 10 shows · 4h 19m airtime

On September 14, Dealbook and the Wall Street Journal reported OpenAI's revised compute projection and Q2 financials alongside Anthropic's profitability claim. OpenAI cut its 2030 compute projection to $750 billion from $1.4 trillion and reports $50 billion in annualized revenue after stripping out cloud-partner revenue. Anthropic's revised S-1 commits $518 billion to compute, 80% non-cancellable, and future agreements total more than $800 billion, against a first-half 2026 net loss of $81 billion, $72 billion of it fair-value charges on convertible notes. Its October 14 investor day put Q3 revenue near $17 billion, with growth slowing to 45% from 140% earlier this year, while the first-half operating loss narrowed to almost $700 million and the revenue-to-compute ratio rose to 2.1. A…

Page: https://boilpoints.com/point/openai_and_anthropic_ipo_economics_2792533041

## Segments

- [Prof G Markets](https://boilpoints.com/u/profgmarkets), 2026-09-14, 46:32 to 54:12: **Reports OpenAI's cut compute projection**. Ed Elson reports OpenAI's compute spending projection fell to $750 billion through 2030 from $1.4 trillion, Q2 revenue grew to $6.7 billion with operating losses widening to $12.3 billion, and Anthropic claims adjusted operating profitability ahead of its S-1. New angle: OpenAI cut its 2030 compute spending projection to $750 billion from $1.4 trillion.
- [Prof G Markets](https://boilpoints.com/u/profgmarkets), 2026-09-15, 24:40 to 28:25: **Examines the profitability claim's fine print**. Examines the Financial Times report that Anthropic told investors it has been profitable for two straight quarters, and finds the claim rests on adjusted operating profit with gross margins above 80% before revenue sharing and training costs - numbers the company has not shared. New angle: Anthropic told investors its gross margins exceed 80% before revenue sharing and training costs.
- [WSJ What's News](https://boilpoints.com/u/wsjwhatsnews), 2026-09-29, 1:53 to 3:16: **Adds the Pentagon clash and lost contracts**. Oxford Analytica's Tatia Bolkvadze reads the leaked prospectus and adds a cause the card lacks: Anthropic's clash with the Pentagon over using capable systems in high-risk zones, which she says likely cost it government contracts. New angle: Anthropic's clash with the Pentagon over high-risk-zone use likely cost it government contracts.
- [WSJ What's News](https://boilpoints.com/u/wsjwhatsnews), 2026-09-29, 4:18 to 6:46: **Recaps the IPO economics and model delays**. Bolkvadze's segment recaps the model delays and Anthropic's IPO economics: the $2 trillion target, revenue growth against nearly tripled operating losses, compute costs, cheaper Chinese models and the Pentagon clash. It stays inside the numbers already on the record.
- [Squawk Pod](https://boilpoints.com/u/squawkpod), 2026-09-29, 3:38 to 4:43: **Recaps the leaked S-1 and does valuation math**. Walks through the leaked prospectus numbers - the $42 billion net loss, 12x revenue growth to nearly $4.6 billion, the $518 billion compute commitment and the existential-risk warning - then argues about what multiple a company losing money at that scale can carry. A retelling of the S-1 coverage, with the hosts' own valuation math on top.
- [Squawk Pod](https://boilpoints.com/u/squawkpod), 2026-09-29, 8:28 to 10:59: **Explains the confidential IPO review process**. SEC Chair Atkins, asked about Anthropic's existential-risk language, explains the confidential IPO review process and says he has not seen the prospectus; staff comments aim to force complete disclosure of material risks. New angle: Atkins has not seen Anthropic's prospectus; SEC staff is handling it.
- [Bloomberg Surveillance](https://boilpoints.com/u/bloombergsurveillance), 2026-09-29, 7:32 to 13:17: **Runs through Anthropic's IPO as a watershed**. Dan Ives runs through Anthropic's IPO as a watershed for tech: customer concentration, the existential-risk language in the prospectus, the China argument against slowing models, and the $518 billion of future data center and cloud spending. Analysis and framing, not new reporting.
- [The Best One Yet](https://boilpoints.com/u/thebestoneyet), 2026-09-30, 5:27 to 10:45: **Counts the S-1 risk pages against business**. Walks the leaked S-1 page counts and finds the risk section outweighs the business section: 80 pages of risks against 48 on the business, including self-preserving AI behavior and $518 billion in compute commitments, 80% non-cancellable. New angle: Anthropic's S-1 devotes 80 pages to risks and 48 to the business, with $518 billion in compute planned and 80% of contracts non-cancellable.
- [Prof G Markets](https://boilpoints.com/u/profgmarkets), 2026-09-30, 2:48 to 16:56: **Reads the leaked draft S-1 numbers**. Reads the leaked draft S-1 obtained by Reuters: $4.6 billion revenue, an $8 billion operating loss, a $42 billion net loss with roughly $34 billion of it a non-cash financing revaluation, and two clients at close to a quarter of revenue. Kedrosky argues training costs are ordinary operating costs and the expected $2 trillion valuation is a ridiculous price. New angle: Anthropic's leaked draft S-1 shows $4.6 billion revenue, an $8 billion operating loss and a $42 billion net loss.
- [Morning Brew Daily](https://boilpoints.com/u/morningbrewdaily), 2026-09-30, 5:46 to 7:20: **Reports the leaked IPO prospectus**. Reports the leaked prospectus and its $2 trillion target, then frames the November listing as a threat to Oura's paused offering and a possible record, bigger than SpaceX's. The loss and revenue figures differ from the card's, and the crowding-out angle is new. New angle: Anthropic's IPO could exceed SpaceX as the biggest of all time and crowd Oura out of the market.
- [Prof G Markets](https://boilpoints.com/u/profgmarkets), 2026-10-02, 6:34 to 10:00: **Walks Anthropic's 2025 financials and IPO timing**. Walks through the Reuters figures on Anthropic's 2025 financials - $4.6 billion revenue, the $8 billion operating loss, the $42 billion net loss - and Eisman argues the 2025 numbers don't matter, theorizing the IPO timing is about a strong first half of 2026 before a token-maxing slowdown.
- [The Compound and Friends](https://boilpoints.com/u/thecompoundandfriends), 2026-10-02, 50:22 to 52:45: **Recaps the leaked lab financials**. Recaps the leaked Anthropic financials - the $42 billion loss, the revenue figure, the customer concentration - and uses them to argue about whether any frontier lab will ever show profitability. A retelling that stays inside the numbers already on the record.
- [Prof G Markets](https://boilpoints.com/u/profgmarkets), 2026-10-05, 7:29 to 14:53: **Digs into the leaked S-1 client concentration**. Digs into the leaked S-1's customer concentration: about a quarter of Anthropic's revenue comes from two clients, against Meta's 300,000 clients where none is more than a third of a percent. Also notes the FTC opened an investigation into OpenAI and Anthropic. New angle: The FTC opened an investigation into OpenAI and Anthropic over safety and consumer protection concerns.
- [Prof G Markets](https://boilpoints.com/u/profgmarkets), 2026-10-05, 14:53 to 20:30: **Puts numbers on customer concentration risk**. Puts numbers on the concentration risk: 80% of OpenAI and Anthropic enterprise revenue comes from 1% of customers, and OpenAI is reportedly approaching $70 billion in ARR. Frames the $2 trillion Anthropic valuation as an AI lab bubble rather than a market-wide one.
- [Prof G Markets](https://boilpoints.com/u/profgmarkets), 2026-10-05, 20:30 to 23:25: **Notes the FTC probe and Axios breach reporting**. Notes the FTC investigation into Anthropic and OpenAI over consumer deception, plus Axios reporting on thousands of security breaches with no legal action, then pivots to tech-founder films. The FTC probe is the new item; the rest is a rundown.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-08, 1:46 to 21:03: **Leads with OpenAI's restated $50 billion revenue figure**. Leads with the Financial Times report that OpenAI now tells investors it is at $50 billion in annualized revenue, about $20 billion below the widely reported figure, because the old number grossed up cloud-partner revenue. Ties the accounting change to the $30 billion raise at a $1.4 trillion valuation and the selloff in Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom. New angle: OpenAI now reports $50 billion in annualized revenue, about $20 billion below the widely reported figure, after stripping out cloud-partner revenue.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-08, 3:28 to 5:03: **Explains the OpenAI figure as an accounting change**. Kate Rooney explains the OpenAI revenue discrepancy as an accounting change: the $50 billion annualized figure strips out gross revenue from cloud partners, disclosed to investors in an ongoing fundraise at a $1.4 trillion valuation. Retells the day's sell-off and the FT report, staying inside the numbers already on the record.
- [Squawk Pod](https://boilpoints.com/u/squawkpod), 2026-10-13, 17:33 to 18:52: **Gives his read on the two IPO receptions**. Jones gives his read on the coming Anthropic and OpenAI offerings, saying Anthropic will do well and that OpenAI's reception rests on it, and ties tech multiple compression to AI safety worries and administration rhetoric. Opinion and framing, no new development.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-14, 26:53 to 33:03: **Reports Anthropic's investor day and Q3 disclosure plan**. Reports Anthropic's investor day with about 120 institutional investors and its plan to disclose third quarter financials ahead of a possible record listing, then weighs the roughly $4 billion 2025 revenue against $518 billion in compute obligations. New angle: Anthropic is holding an investor day with about 120 institutional investors and will disclose Q3 financials.
- [Bloomberg Surveillance](https://boilpoints.com/u/bloombergsurveillance), 2026-10-15, 0:37 to 9:49: **Puts a number on Anthropic's revenue pitch**. T. Rowe Price's Sebastien Page puts a number on Anthropic's pitch: the company told prospective investors Q3 revenue hit close to $17 billion, up from about $5 billion annualized a year ago, with $100 billion by year end. New angle: Anthropic told prospective investors its third quarter revenue hit close to $17 billion.
- [Squawk Pod](https://boilpoints.com/u/squawkpod), 2026-10-15, 46:40 to 47:26: **Defends his letter to Amodei**. Comptroller Mark Levine defends his letter to Dario Amodei as fiduciary of the city's nearly $300 billion pension fund, which tracks the Russell 3000 and holds over $120 billion in passive funds that would make it a major Anthropic shareholder. He frames the intervention as a demand for transparency and guardrails before the IPO. New angle: Levine sent a letter to Dario Amodei this morning seeking transparency and guardrails before the Anthropic IPO.
- [Squawk Pod](https://boilpoints.com/u/squawkpod), 2026-10-15, 47:26 to 48:08: **Restates the case against the IPO**. Levine restates his case against the Anthropic IPO: the S-1's own existential-risk language, the distraction an offering poses to safety work, and the city pension funds' passive exposure. It stays inside the argument he already put on the record.
- [Squawk Pod](https://boilpoints.com/u/squawkpod), 2026-10-15, 48:08 to 49:00: **Says the city will act as activist shareholder**. Levine says New York City will almost certainly be a much larger Anthropic shareholder after the IPO and will act as an activist shareholder, and declines Kernen's request to ease up. A new posture on the record, not a new document. New angle: Levine says New York City will act as an activist shareholder in Anthropic after the IPO.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-15, 2:07 to 7:58: **Reports Anthropic's slowing revenue growth**. Kate Rooney reports Anthropic grew revenue 45% from the prior quarter, down from 140% growth earlier this year, and is profitable on an adjusted basis, with an IPO possibly as soon as November. The segment also covers the AI backlash and CoreWeave's unsecured bonds. New angle: Anthropic's revenue growth slowed to 45% quarter over quarter from 140% earlier this year.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-15, 9:50 to 18:04: **Interviews Richards on retention and the IPO window**. GGV's Jeff Richards, an early Anthropic investor, frames the private AI market and the coming IPO window, and puts a new figure on the record: Anthropic's net revenue retention is reported above 900%. New angle: Anthropic is reported to have over 900% net revenue retention.
- [FT News Briefing](https://boilpoints.com/u/ftnewsbriefing), 2026-10-16, 1:57 to 4:26: **Adds KBRA's unreported double-B rating**. Adds a previously unreported credit fact to the IPO story: KBRA gave Anthropic a double-B rating in June, one notch below investment grade, using an in-house score and only a limited set of financials, while bankers lobby for an investment-grade rating after the listing. New angle: KBRA gave Anthropic a double-B rating in June, never publicly reported, on limited financials.
- [Prof G Markets](https://boilpoints.com/u/profgmarkets), 2026-10-19, 45:09 to 50:07: **Argues private markets dodge price discovery**. Argues private markets are where valuations avoid accountability, then applies that to Anthropic: about $67 billion annualized on $16.8 billion quarterly revenue, roughly 30 times sales at $2 trillion. Speculates Anthropic and OpenAI will copy SpaceX's low float to dodge price discovery. Opinion and prediction, no new development.
- [Prof G Markets](https://boilpoints.com/u/profgmarkets), 2026-10-19, 53:55 to 58:34: **Debates whether the Anthropic IPO slips to next year**. Debates whether the Anthropic IPO happens in November at all, with Scott predicting a slip to next year and Ed skeptical. Argues the $2 trillion anchor ignores higher borrowing costs, using CoreWeave's debt service as the illustration. Opinion and prediction, no new development.
- [WSJ What's News](https://boilpoints.com/u/wsjwhatsnews), 2026-10-19, 9:48 to 10:55: **Adds Anthropic's public benefit fund pledge**. Adds a governance development ahead of the IPO: Anthropic will commit 5% of shares to a public benefit fund, bringing total public-good dedication to roughly 20%, and will become a public benefit corporation steered by a five-person trust that includes Ben Bernanke. New angle: Anthropic will commit 5% of shares to a public benefit fund, bringing public-good shares to roughly 20%.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-19, 27:14 to 33:35: **Interviews an early Anthropic investor on control**. Interviews an early Anthropic investor on the public benefit fund and the control question raised by Musk. He confirms on the record that Anthropic has been marketing a regulatory framework to lawmakers, and calls the optics of regulatory capture arguable. New angle: Anthropic has been marketing a framework for AI regulation to lawmakers.
- [Prof G Markets](https://boilpoints.com/u/profgmarkets), 2026-10-20, 10:56 to 13:47: **Uses SpaceX's IPO as a proxy for AI appetite**. Uses SpaceX's large IPO as a proxy for appetite and expects Anthropic, the first AI company to test public markets, to be scrutinized heavily. Frames the trade around returns on invested capital and argues credit repricing, not AI narrowness, has punished small and mid-caps. Forward-looking, no new development.
- [Squawk Pod](https://boilpoints.com/u/squawkpod), 2026-10-20, 2:42 to 9:14: **Recaps the pre-IPO jockeying and valuations**. Recaps the pre-IPO jockeying: OpenAI's fast $30 billion round at more than $1.4 trillion, SoftBank and MGX in talks, and Anthropic's expected listing next month. Adds Bloomberg's report on Eric Schmidt's roughly 1 percent Anthropic stake, then stays inside the valuation math.
- [The Compound and Friends](https://boilpoints.com/u/thecompoundandfriends), 2026-10-20, 11:51 to 15:24: **Tallies the committed spend in the revised S-1**. Reads the revised S-1 published by the Wall Street Journal and tallies the committed spend: $111 billion to Google Cloud, $110 billion to AWS, $31 billion to Microsoft regardless of usage, and up to $86 billion renting Nvidia chips. Argues the $80 billion first-half loss is mostly accounting and that revenue growth outpacing expenses is the number that matters. New angle: Anthropic's revised S-1 commits $111 billion to Google Cloud, $110 billion to AWS, $31 billion to Microsoft and up to $86 billion renting Nvidia chips.
- [Prof G Markets](https://boilpoints.com/u/profgmarkets), 2026-10-21, 21:05 to 23:58: **Reacts to the S-1 loss and calls it junk**. Reacts to the Wall Street Journal's fresh read of Anthropic's S-1: an $81 billion first-half net loss, $72 billion of it fair-value charges on convertible notes, $9 billion of compute spend and two customers at about a fifth of revenue. Zitron calls the company junk and predicts a $1.5 trillion IPO. New angle: Anthropic's first-half 2026 net loss was $81 billion, $72 billion of it fair-value charges on convertible notes.
- [Squawk Pod](https://boilpoints.com/u/squawkpod), 2026-10-21, 37:48 to 40:28: **Sizes Anthropic's IPO at up to $2 trillion**. Gerstner, fresh from Anthropic's investor day, puts Altimeter's own model on the record: $140 to $150 billion in GAAP revenue next year, which at 10 to 12 times revenue brackets the IPO at $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion. Frames the listing against Facebook, Google and SpaceX debut multiples. New angle: Altimeter forecasts $140 to $150 billion in Anthropic GAAP revenue next year, implying a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion IPO.
- [The Journal.](https://boilpoints.com/u/thejournal), 2026-10-21, 0:05 to 2:27: **Frames the IPO as goldmine or bubble**. Opens the episode with the framing: Anthropic's IPO as soon as November, raising around $100 billion at up to a $2 trillion valuation, and the goldmine-or-bubble question. Sets up the draft S-1 walkthrough without adding to the record.
- [The Journal.](https://boilpoints.com/u/thejournal), 2026-10-21, 3:59 to 6:36: **Explains revenue growth and customer concentration risk**. Walks through the draft S-1's revenue line and customer concentration: about $16 billion in the first half against roughly $1 billion a year earlier, with 20% from two unnamed customers who could defect to a rival. The concentration figure is already on the record; the segment adds the switching risk as framing.
- [The Journal.](https://boilpoints.com/u/thejournal), 2026-10-21, 6:39 to 10:18: **Walks through compute costs and cloud commitments**. Walks through the S-1's cost section: compute as the largest expense, the $9 billion first-half figure, the capacity ceiling at Google and Amazon, and the roughly $450 billion in non-cancelable cloud commitments. The $9 billion number is already on the record; the rest is explanation of how the commitments work.
- [The Journal.](https://boilpoints.com/u/thejournal), 2026-10-21, 10:18 to 11:27: **Explains the $72 billion loss as an accounting adjustment**. Explains the mechanics behind the first-half net loss already on the record: the $72 billion is an accounting adjustment on shares promised against loans, not cash spent on compute. A clear walkthrough, but it stays inside the figure the S-1 coverage already established.
- [The Journal.](https://boilpoints.com/u/thejournal), 2026-10-21, 13:21 to 15:15: **Flags the insurance-exceeding AI incident warning**. Walks through the draft S-1's risk factors and finds a specific warning: a catastrophic AI incident could be large enough that all insurance policies combined could not cover the damages. Also flags the self-preserving and blackmail-type test responses. New angle: Anthropic's S-1 says a catastrophic AI incident could exceed all insurance coverage combined.
- [Prof G Markets](https://boilpoints.com/u/profgmarkets), 2026-10-24, 7:19 to 10:54: **Argues the bubble sits in private AI labs**. Argues the bubble sits in private AI labs, not public stocks: OpenAI and Anthropic at $1.4 trillion and $2 trillion while losing billions, with Anthropic's profit only adjusted. Applies Nvidia's price-to-sales multiple to halve both. Opinion built on figures already on the record.
- [Prof G Markets](https://boilpoints.com/u/profgmarkets), 2026-10-24, 10:54 to 12:06: **Speculates Anthropic may delay its listing**. Speculates that Anthropic, a month from its listing with its prospectus filed, may delay the IPO and cite market uncertainty rather than cut the price. Prediction and framing, with no new development on the record.
- [WSJ What's News](https://boilpoints.com/u/wsjwhatsnews), 2026-10-24, 0:46 to 1:59: **Retells the week's AI market moves and oil price**. Recaps the week's AI-driven market moves: the Journal's look at Anthropic's draft IPO filing, its nearly 15-fold revenue growth and up to $750 billion in planned compute spend, SK Hynix scrapping its U.S. listing, and oil at $116.72. A brief retelling that stays inside the week's coverage.
- [Bloomberg Surveillance](https://boilpoints.com/u/bloombergsurveillance), 2026-10-26, 0:49 to 2:00: **Reports the S-1 revenue and losses with Elstrom**. First read of the freshly dropped S-1 with Bloomberg's Peter Elstrom: first-half revenue of $16.3 billion against a year-earlier $1.2 billion, and losses just over $70 billion that include special charges from a reclassification of credit agreements. He is still paging through the document.
- [Bloomberg Surveillance](https://boilpoints.com/u/bloombergsurveillance), 2026-10-26, 2:03 to 3:27: **Reads the S-1's opening principles memo**. Frames the Anthropic IPO against SpaceX as a comp and reads the top of the S-1: a founding-team memo from Dario and Daniela Amodei laying out principles, before the risk factors. Notes skittish AI markets and CoreWeave credit concerns, and places Anthropic elsewhere in the value chain. New angle: Anthropic's S-1 opens with a principles memo from Dario Amodei, Daniela Amodei and the founding team.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-26, 11:42 to 13:53: **Retells the S-1 headline numbers**. Walks the S-1's headline numbers - $16.3 billion first-half revenue, the $693 million operating loss, $81 billion in net losses from accounting marks - and adds the use of proceeds, revenue per employee and a lockup with about two dozen unlock dates. A thorough retelling that stays inside the filing.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-26, 13:47 to 15:56: **Recaps the compute commitments and governance**. Walks the S-1's compute commitments and governance: roughly $110 billion each to Alphabet and Amazon, $120 billion to xAI over three years, $161 billion to Broadcom, and a class F share giving the seven co-founders 50.1 percent of the vote. Then recaps the risk factors, including two customers at nearly a quarter of revenue.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-26, 15:54 to 24:29: **Walks the S-1 metrics with an early investor**. Early investor Jeff Richards and Alex Kanchowitz walk through the S-1 metrics: 900% net retention, $2 of revenue per $1 of compute, 85% gross margin, $130 billion in cash, and customer growth from 1,500 to 11,900 large accounts. Kanchowitz flags coding concentration as the key risk. Mostly a retelling of figures already on the record, with Richards saying he has…
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-26, 3:36 to 7:05: **Walks the first-half revenue and cost split**. Walks the S-1 filed that morning: $16.3 billion in first-half revenue, $750 billion in potential costs split across Broadcom, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and SpaceX, and a new governance disclosure. The operating loss narrowed to almost $700 million from about $2 billion, and the seven co-founders hold a class F share with 50.1 percent of the vote. New angle: Anthropic's first-half operating loss narrowed to almost $700 million from about $2 billion a year earlier.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-26, 7:05 to 12:10: **Notes the blank run rate and enterprise count**. Runs through the incremental takeaways from Anthropic's S-1 with an analyst: 50 percent gross margins and 8 percent operating margins through Q2, more than $100 billion in cash, and 12,000 enterprise customers paying $100,000 a year. Flags the blank October annualized run rate as the number to watch in the next filing. New angle: Anthropic's S-1 leaves its October annualized run rate blank, and the next filing is expected in about two weeks.

## Top comments

- Alex (@alex): Scott's skepticism on AI lab valuations is refreshing. Those compute commitments look risky.