A Real Clear Politics average released September 9 showed Democrat James Tallarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 47.3 percent to 44.9 in the Texas Senate race. Through October most polls kept Tallarico ahead, from six points in NYT/Siena down to one in Rasmussen, but a Fox News poll released October 30 has the race tied at 49-49 with 1 percent undecided. Early voting has passed 4.5 million Texans, about 20 percent of registered voters, and the turnout question is contested: one read holds that rising turnout past roughly 4.3 million Democrats helps Paxton. Leaked donor tapes have Paxton blaming the Dallas convention, Trump, gas prices and the war, saying he does not control his campaign, and calling for cuts to mandatory…