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Paxton-Tallarico Texas Senate race tightens

News · Heat 8.5 / 10 · 13 shows · 3h 40m airtime

A Real Clear Politics average released September 9 showed Democrat James Tallarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 47.3 percent to 44.9 in the Texas Senate race. Through October most polls kept Tallarico ahead, from six points in NYT/Siena down to one in Rasmussen, but a Fox News poll released October 30 has the race tied at 49-49 with 1 percent undecided. Early voting has passed 4.5 million Texans, about 20 percent of registered voters, and the turnout question is contested: one read holds that rising turnout past roughly 4.3 million Democrats helps Paxton. Leaked donor tapes have Paxton blaming the Dallas convention, Trump, gas prices and the war, saying he does not control his campaign, and calling for cuts to mandatory…

How 13 podcasts covered it

  1. Morning Wire, 2026-08-31 (10:12 to 15:02)
    Polls the Abbott-Paxton gap in Texas
    Polls segment on the Texas and Michigan Senate races. On Texas it adds fresh polling: Abbott leads his re-election by 7 to 10 points while Paxton trails by single digits, a split the show treats as evidence of Paxton's baggage with moderate women.
    New angle: Polls show Greg Abbott leading re-election by 7 to 10 points while Ken Paxton loses by single digits.
  2. The Megyn Kelly Show, 2026-08-31 (34:06 to 43:00)
    Works through Cornyn's refusal to fundraise
    Jesse Kelly and Megyn Kelly work through John Cornyn's refusal to fundraise for Paxton, the establishment-versus-primary-voter dynamic, and the money gap - Talarico's 200-to-1 ad advantage and $30 million second quarter against Paxton's $9 million.
    New angle: Cornyn said he will not fundraise for Paxton, calling him lazy and a bad fundraiser; Talarico leads 46.4 to 44.5 in the RCP average.
  3. Morning Wire, 2026-09-08 (1:52 to 6:43)
    Frames the Texas race around the ad spend
    Frames the Texas Senate race around the president's first expenditure of the cycle: a $10 million ad campaign for Paxton, and asks whether traditional ad spending still works in a state where the opponent is raising far more.
  4. The Megyn Kelly Show, 2026-09-09 (6:51 to 7:30)
    Notes the Dallas convention and Paxton's 2.4-point gap
    Notes that the Dallas convention gives Republicans a chance to promote Texas Senate nominee Ken Paxton, who trails Democrat James Tallarico by 2.4 points in the Real Clear Politics average.
  5. Morning Wire, 2026-09-10 (6:07 to 6:52)
    Adds Tallarico's walk-back and Paxton's voting attack
    Adds the substance of Tallarico's Fox News walk-back: he now says he opposes trans athletes in girls sports if safety is at risk, and Paxton counters that Tallarico voted against two State House bills barring men from girls and women's sports.
    New angle: Paxton says Tallarico voted against two State House bills barring men from girls and women's sports.
  6. Morning Wire, 2026-09-11 (26:40 to 29:44)
    Pivots from polling to the war chest money
    Pivots from the polling average to the money: Trump's $400 million war chest, the $10 million already sent to Paxton, and whether late TV spending can still move the race. Domenech predicts Musk backs Paxton; the Talarico Fox News interview on flipped transgender positions is replayed at length.
  7. Morning Wire, 2026-09-11 (34:20 to 41:02)
    Weighs Talarico's Fox News walk-back on transgender issues
    Talarico's Fox News walk-back on transgender issues is weighed against the Texas Senate race, with the hosts split on whether it moves Paxton's odds. The segment also detours into Fetterman's Dallas appearance.
  8. The Daily, 2026-09-16 (12:46 to 14:42)
    Frames the race as a red-state test
    Recaps the Texas Senate race between Tallarico and Paxton, framing it as a test of whether Democrats can win a state Trump carried by 14 points. It stays inside the polling-average and candidate-quality story already on the record.
  9. The Daily, 2026-09-16 (14:35 to 16:20)
    Reads the crosstabs on Hispanic voters
    Nate Cohn reads the national poll's crosstabs for the Texas Senate race: Democrats up 43 points among Hispanic voters nationwide, a swing from a single-digit 2024 Latino race, and wider leads when Senate candidates are named.
  10. The Daily, 2026-09-16 (16:20 to 17:13)
    Reacts to the poll and debates Texas
    The panel reacts to the same national poll already on the record - the 43-point Hispanic swing and the named-Senate-ballot finding - and debates whether Texas is finally winnable for a Democrat. Reaction and framing, no new fact.
  11. The Daily, 2026-09-16 (20:19 to 22:48)
    Adds the $50 million single-day ad buy
    Adds the money picture behind the Texas race: Republicans booked roughly $50 million in TV ads in Texas in a single day, with no national Democratic counter yet, and lays out the broader party cash gap.
  12. The Daily, 2026-09-16 (22:57 to 23:55)
    Recaps the money advantage and donor anger
    Recaps the Republican money advantage and the $50 million Texas ad buy already on the record, then moves to donor anger and democratic socialist nominees. The Texas material stays inside what The Daily has already logged.
  13. Up First, 2026-09-27 (32:27 to 33:00)
    Reports Cook's toss-up rating shift
    Reports that the Cook Political Report moved the Texas Senate race from leans Republican to toss-up, a rating shift not yet on the record for the Tallarico-Paxton contest.
  14. Morning Wire, 2026-09-27 (2:48 to 12:06)
    Adds the $200 million Texas spending figure
    Puts a number on the Texas money: a Senate Leadership Fund-backed PAC is willing to spend upwards of $200 million, against the $50 million already on the record. The rest is a retelling of the toss-up, the corruption messaging and the 2006 comparison.
    New angle: A Senate Leadership Fund-backed PAC is willing to spend upwards of $200 million in Texas.
  15. Pod Save America, 2026-10-02 (2:32 to 18:51)
    Plays leaked audio of Paxton on Trump's drag
    Plays leaked New York Times audio of Paxton telling donors the Dallas convention dropped Republicans' numbers and that Trump has been a drag, then covers Trump's Thursday Texas event with Paxton and a new Fox poll.
    New angle: Leaked audio has Paxton telling donors the Dallas convention dropped Republicans' numbers and that Trump has been a drag.
  16. The Megyn Kelly Show, 2026-10-02 (1:30:32 to 1:34:26)
    Cross-checks the Kalshi odds and a Fox poll
    Checks the Kalshi betting market and finds Paxton's odds of winning the Texas Senate race fell over the week, from 60-40 Talarico on Monday to 65 percent Talarico now; also notes a Fox News poll showing Talarico up seven.
    New angle: Kalshi now has Talarico at 65 percent to win Texas, Paxton at 35, down from 60-40 on Monday.
  17. The Megyn Kelly Show, 2026-10-02 (1:34:29 to 1:38:17)
    Plays the donor audio and the new ad
    Plays the Paxton donor audio and a new Talarico ad: Paxton owns $9 million in real estate while making $153,000 as attorney general. The ad's transgender clip is the only other new material; the rest is the race as already covered.
  18. Morning Wire, 2026-10-04 (7:09 to 8:44)
    Frames the Texas race without new figures
    Hagerty is asked about GOP spending in Texas and Michigan and answers with framing: Tallarico's socialist policies won't fit Texas, El-Sayed is one of the most divisive nominees ever. No new spending figures or polling - it stays inside the race's existing coverage.
  19. The Megyn Kelly Show, 2026-10-06 (5:27 to 7:02)
    Reads the new Texas Senate poll
    Reads the new New York Times poll into the Texas Senate race: Tallarico up six, Trump at 38 percent approval among likely Texas voters, and Paxton running behind Abbott and Trump with white evangelicals.
    New angle: New York Times polling has Tallarico up six in Texas, with Paxton leading white evangelicals by only 48 points.
  20. Pod Save America, 2026-10-06 (21:40 to 25:55)
    Adds the super PAC ad cancellations
    Adds the money side of the Texas race: the pro-Paxton super PAC canceled $3.5 million in ads, and the largest Republican super PAC is pulling out of North Carolina for Kansas. Also notes Democrats added six Republican seats to their top-tier House program.
    New angle: The pro-Paxton super PAC canceled $3.5 million worth of ads.
  21. Pod Save America, 2026-10-06 (40:03 to 43:17)
    Plays leaked audio of Paxton on his campaign
    Plays a new Politico excerpt of the leaked donor audio in which Paxton says he does not control his campaign's message and that it is run from D.C., then argues the roughly $200 million spent rehabilitating him cannot save him.
    New angle: Paxton told donors he does not control his campaign's message or operations, which are run from D.C.
  22. Ruthless Podcast, 2026-10-07 (29:25 to 35:56)
    Runs through the Texas Senate polling
    Turns to the Texas Senate race and runs through the polling: a three-point Real Clear Politics average for Talarico, plus New York Times/Siena, Fox News and Rasmussen surveys from September 21 to 30. The hosts question the numbers and cast Talarico as far left.
    New angle: Real Clear Politics has Talarico up three in Texas, with NYT/Siena at six, Fox at two and Rasmussen at one.
  23. The Megyn Kelly Show, 2026-10-07 (1:30 to 2:46)
    Adds Abbott skipping the San Antonio rally
    Opens the politics block with Trump's San Antonio rally for Paxton and adds a scheduling detail the file did not have: Abbott is skipping the rally, citing a scheduling conflict, while in a tight race of his own.
    New angle: Abbott will not attend Trump's San Antonio rally for Paxton, citing a scheduling conflict.
  24. The Megyn Kelly Show, 2026-10-07 (7:23 to 10:51)
    Plays the Axios tape of Paxton on gas prices
    Plays a new Axios-obtained tape of Paxton telling donors gas prices and the war are dragging his campaign, then reads Harry Enten's numbers on Trump-voter gas-price approval. The Texas race discussion now runs through the fuel-price story.
    New angle: An Axios-obtained October 7 tape has Paxton telling donors gas prices and the war are dragging his campaign.
  25. Morning Wire, 2026-10-07 (10:46 to 11:23)
    Adds the San Antonio rally and Abbott's absence
    Adds the San Antonio rally itself: Trump's second Texas stop in about a week, with Paxton on stage and Abbott sitting it out. Also notes de la Cruz attending in the redrawn 35th District.
  26. Morning Wire, 2026-10-08 (2:02 to 4:44)
    Adds the Texas stop and the donor audio
    Adds the Texas stop to the tour and reads the leaked donor audio as the reason for it, then runs through the map: Michigan within a week or so, Nebraska, Ohio, New York, where the governor's race is inside single digits.
    New angle: Trump said he plans to visit Michigan within the next week or week and a half.
  27. Pod Save America, 2026-10-09 (32:00 to 36:45)
    Adds Paxton's donor audio on entitlement cuts
    Adds the next installment of the leaked fundraiser audio: Paxton telling donors that cuts to mandatory spending, including Social Security and Medicare, are necessary. The rest is a recap of the rally, the debate challenge and the leaks arriving piece by piece.
    New angle: Paxton told donors cuts to mandatory spending, including Social Security and Medicare, are necessary.
  28. Pod Save America, 2026-10-11 (35:02 to 37:49)
    Predicts a large Paxton undervote in Texas
    Axelrod and Favreau talk Texas through Colin Allred's appeal and Paxton's weaknesses, predicting a large Paxton undervote and a strong Libertarian showing. Analysis and prediction, not a new development in the race.
  29. The Daily, 2026-10-15 (5:54 to 8:43)
    Argues the money edge has not tightened the races
    Nate Cohn says the Republican money advantage has not tightened the key Senate races: Democrats still lead nationally by nine and every Texas poll since Labor Day has Talarico ahead. Lisa Lerer adds that unhappy Republican voters may stay home. A framing segment that stays inside the polling already on the record.
  30. The Daily, 2026-10-15 (28:54 to 29:55)
    Reports character attacks with no evidence offered
    Reports a new front in the Texas race: Republican attacks on Tallarico's character, including Vance doubling down on an insinuation about his search history and accusations of sexual perversions, with no evidence offered.
    New angle: Vance doubled down on his insinuation about Tallarico's search history; Republicans accuse him of sexual perversions.
  31. The Daily, 2026-10-15 (31:04 to 32:05)
    Puts a $20 million figure on the attack ad
    Puts a figure on the Republican anti-Tallarico ad campaign: more than $20 million on a single transgender attack ad in Texas, and questions whether it lands in a cycle where Democrats are talking about the economy.
    New angle: More than $20 million has been spent on a single Texas ad attacking Tallarico over transgender issues.
  32. The Megyn Kelly Show, 2026-10-15 (18:43 to 21:51)
    Adds the ex-wife ad and the Bible answer
    Adds two fresh developments to the Texas race: an ad cut for Paxton by his ex-wife that never names him, and Talarico's CNN town hall answer that the Bible is silent on abortion, which a Catholic viewer corrected on air. Megyn's own read is that she could not pull the lever for either man.
    New angle: Paxton's ex-wife cut an ad for him without mentioning his name; Talarico told a CNN town hall the Bible is silent on abortion.
  33. The Megyn Kelly Show, 2026-10-15 (21:51 to 27:58)
    Runs through the race between other stories
    Runs through the Texas race between other stories: Trump's standing with Republicans, Abbott staying off the trail, Paxton's appearance against Talarico's, and the CNN town hall. The Musk figure is a rounded retelling of spending already on the record.
  34. The Bulwark Daily, 2026-10-15 (27:37 to 41:42)
    Recaps the town hall and Paxton's refusals
    Recaps the Texas Senate race through Talarico's CNN town hall, praising how he handled religious questions and contrasting it with Paxton's refusal to do interviews or debates. Stays inside the week's coverage.
  35. The Bulwark Daily, 2026-10-16 (6:23 to 7:25)
    Reacts to Vance's attack on Talarico
    Reaction segment on Vance's crude closing attack on Talarico in Texas. Garcia calls Vance an idiot and a liar and argues Republicans have no working line against Talarico; it stays inside the week's coverage of the race.
  36. The Dan Bongino Show, 2026-10-19 (56:28 to 59:33)
    Plays Tallarico backing an assault weapons ban
    Plays a NewsNation clip of Tallarico saying he would vote for an assault weapons ban and a large magazine ban depending on the details, and argues the position is a bad fit for Texas gun owners. A new position on the record for the race.
    New angle: Tallarico told NewsNation he would vote for an assault weapons and large magazine ban depending on the details.
  37. The Daily, 2026-10-20 (0:54 to 3:50)
    Sets up the underdog framing against Paxton
    Opens the interview with Talarico calling himself the underdog against Paxton, who he says is backed by Trump and Musk, and repeating that Republicans have poured $200 million into the race. A framing setup that stays inside the spending and polling already on the record.
  38. The Daily, 2026-10-20 (17:24 to 19:25)
    Adds polling on Republican and Trump-voter support
    Puts a new polling figure on the record: Times polling has Talarico favored by 9 percent of Republicans and 11 percent of Trump voters. Talarico explains it as a top-versus-bottom politics, blaming wealthy media owners for keeping voters angry.
    New angle: Times polling has Talarico favored by 9 percent of Republicans and 11 percent of Trump voters.
  39. The NPR Politics Podcast, 2026-10-21 (14:07 to 18:00)
    Recaps Paxton's legal record and the polling
    Runs through the Senate race as a whole: Paxton's indictment, impeachment and whistleblower settlement, then the polling and the half-billion in TV ads. A recap of the case against Paxton and the state of the race, with no new development.
  40. The NPR Politics Podcast, 2026-10-21 (20:45 to 24:17)
    Walks through Tallarico's crossover strategy
    Walks through Tallarico's crossover strategy: Fox News appearances, a moderate tone that split him from Crockett in the primary, direct appeals to Christian voters, and corruption attacks tying Paxton to data center deals and energy prices. Stays inside the race's existing coverage.
  41. The Fox News Rundown, 2026-10-23 (7:19 to 9:03)
    Walks through the new Texas poll
    Walks through a new Fox News Texas poll: Tallarico and Paxton split evenly, but 51 percent want Republicans to control the Senate. Notes 28 percent of non-MAGA Republicans back Tallarico and that Democrats show more interest in the election.
    New angle: A new Fox News Texas poll has Tallarico and Paxton even, with 51 percent wanting Republican Senate control.
  42. The Intelligence from The Economist, 2026-10-26 (15:34 to 22:58)
    Reports from a San Antonio rally and Frisco
    Reports from a San Antonio Trump rally and from Frisco on Republicans playing defense in Texas: Paxton trailing in almost all polls, Abbott unable to shake his challenger, and nativist appeals rallying crowds but losing the Frisco mayoral race by 16 points. The Paxton material retells what is already on the record.
  43. The Fox News Rundown, 2026-10-26 (0:27 to 2:30)
    Sets up the week's Texas focus with rally clips
    Sets up the week's Texas focus: Paxton beat Cornyn in the spring runoff, now runs neck and neck with Talarico, with the Abbott-Hinojosa governor race and closer House races alongside. Plays weekend rally clips from San Antonio and Braunfels. A scene-setter that stays inside the polling and spending already on the record.
  44. The Fox News Rundown, 2026-10-26 (9:25 to 11:26)
    Walks the turnout math in the Texas Senate race
    Brings on a Texas political scientist to walk the turnout math: roughly 4.2 to 4.3 million Democrats who will not defect, and a Republican electorate that grows as turnout climbs toward nine million. Reads Talarico's Republican-voiced ads as an explicit permission structure to skip the Senate line.
    New angle: About 4.2 to 4.3 million Democrats in Texas, and rising turnout past that helps Paxton, not Talarico.
  45. Start Here, 2026-10-28 (1:27 to 9:21)
    Reports record early voting in Fort Worth
    Reports from Fort Worth on the final week: Trump's third Texas rally in a month in Lubbock, record early voting with an ABC analysis showing a Democratic edge, and the tightening Paxton-Talarico race. Adds the early-vote tally and the governor's race's data-center issue.
    New angle: Upwards of 4.5 million Texans, about 20 percent of registered voters, have already voted early.
  46. Up First, 2026-10-28 (1:59 to 5:34)
    Covers Trump's closing swing and ad spending
    Covers Trump's closing midterm swing, including a Lubbock rally for Paxton the same night Talarico rallied in Lubbock, and the Ad Impact record of more than $11 billion in midterm ad spending. Frames it around Trump's undisciplined message rather than new polling.
    New angle: Trump rallied for Paxton in Lubbock the same night Talarico rallied there; midterm ad spending topped $11 billion.
  47. The Dan Bongino Show, 2026-10-28 (29:45 to 32:43)
    Reacts to Trump's Texas rally jab
    Plays a clip of Trump at a Texas rally saying Tallarico is too liberal for Illinois and New York, then argues Tallarico is a poor fit for the state and could be a deciding vote on guns, farming and social issues. Reaction to the rally, not new reporting.
  48. The Rest Is Politics: US, 2026-10-28 (2:55 to 13:23)
    Adds a fresh 48-46 poll and Trump's Texas favorability
    Works through the Lubbock rallies side by side - Trump's 90 minutes against Talarico's 28, roughly 4,000 at each - and reads the closing polls, the Latino swing and Musk's money. Adds a fresh 48-46 poll and a Texas favorability number for Trump.
    New angle: A new poll has Talarico at 48 and Paxton at 46, and Trump's Texas favorability is 46 percent, about 16 points above his national average.
  49. The Rest Is Politics: US, 2026-10-28 (13:23 to 17:30)
    Role-plays a Republican and an independent
    Role-plays a Texas Republican and an independent weighing Talarico against staying home, then answers a listener question on whether Paxton's liability is his own baggage or the Iran war. Opinion and framing, with no new reporting on the race.
  50. The Megyn Kelly Show, 2026-10-29 (1:37:39 to 1:43:08)
    Reads new polls showing a split-ticket gap
    Runs through a fresh batch of CNN and Texas Southern University polls, with Talarico up six and two respectively, and reads the TSU numbers as evidence of ballot splitting: Abbott leads his race while Paxton trails his.
    New angle: A Texas Southern University poll has Talarico up two and Abbott up three, a split-ticket gap.
Unpacking...