The BLS reported on October 15, 2026 that September producer prices rose 1.3% month over month and 6.3% year over year, both far above estimates, with core PPI up 0.7% and 5%. The 1.3% monthly rise is the largest since 2022. Retail sales rose 0.8% on the month, though the GDP-relevant control group was weaker than expected at 0.1%. The discussion turns on margin compression, with PPI outpacing CPI, and on whether the weak control group signals a softer consumer. The 30-year Treasury rallied after the data and yields fell below pre-data levels, a move that sits uneasily with the inflation surprise. Aditya Bhave says the September producer data raises the risk that more consumer inflation is coming.