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South Carolina Senate tightens

News · Heat 9.9 / 10 · 6 shows · 28m airtime

South Carolina Senate polling through October 18, 2026 put Darlene Graham at 49 and Andrews at 46, a three-point lead in the race for the seat Graham holds after the death of Senator Graham and a special election. A New York Times poll has since put the race tied at 48. The discussion treats the contest as closer than a ruby-red state should allow, with the earlier read still favoring Republicans.

How 6 podcasts covered it

  1. Ruthless Podcast, 2026-10-28 (28:06 to 31:29)
    Tracks Graham's lead narrowing to three
    Walks the South Carolina Senate polling graphic: Graham's lead trimmed from four points to three between October 8 and October 18, with Andrews gaining a point. Frames it against Lindsey Graham's old tight races and the special election after Senator Graham's death, and reads Kalshi's 76 percent as still safe.
    New angle: South Carolina Senate polling through October 18 had Graham at 49 and Andrews at 46, a three-point lead.
  2. The Bulwark Daily, 2026-10-28 (7:21 to 13:10)
    Adds a tied South Carolina poll to the map
    Walks the Senate map to a 52-seat Democratic mode and lands on a new New York Times poll showing South Carolina tied at 48, a shift from the three-point Graham lead on the record. Notes Andrews's 48 would be the best Democratic Senate showing in the state this century.
    New angle: A New York Times poll had the South Carolina Senate race tied at 48.
  3. The Megyn Kelly Show, 2026-10-28 (1:25:16 to 1:32:01)
    Walks through the Times poll tightening South Carolina
    Halperin walks through the New York Times poll that put Andrews level with Graham in South Carolina, calling Graham a weak candidate and Trump's pick the reason she is on the ballot. Stays inside the tie already on the record, adding only Kalshi movement and the coming Trump visit.
  4. Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar, 2026-10-29 (11:07 to 15:23)
    Recaps the Times poll showing a tied race
    Recaps the New York Times poll putting the South Carolina Senate race tied at 48 and works through why: a Democratic wave, Graham's weak candidate profile, Black turnout possibly tied to the majority-Black districts ruling, and her primary-opponent problem in the Greenville-Spartanburg area. Stays inside the poll already on the record.
  5. Pod Save America, 2026-10-30 (14:22 to 19:52)
    Close-reads the tied South Carolina poll
    Walks the Times-Siena internals: Graham's net-negative favorability, Andrews's edge with independents and on experience, and the black-turnout math. The tied 48-48 headline is already on the record; this is a close read of the same poll.
  6. The Rest Is Politics: US, 2026-10-30 (17:16 to 19:22)
    Predicts Graham holds South Carolina
    Brief segment on South Carolina between other races: the hosts predict Graham holds the seat on the strength of the Graham name, and sketch what bicameral investigations would mean if Democrats sweep. Prediction and framing, no new reporting.
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