A New York Times/Siena College poll released October 21, 2026, two weeks before the midterms, put Trump's approval at 36 percent among likely voters, a new low, and found likely voters favoring Democratic congressional candidates by 11 points. The poll also found voters now see Democrats as better at understanding problems, fixing them and keeping promises, a reversal from 2024. Discussion has since moved to the coalition: Trump's approval among white working-class voters sits at 51 percent, down from the 66 percent of their vote he won in 2024. What remains open is whether that erosion is priced into the district-level numbers.