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Times-Siena: Trump at 36

News · Heat 1.5 / 10 · 2 shows · 13m airtime

A New York Times/Siena College poll released October 21, 2026, two weeks before the midterms, put Trump's approval at 36 percent among likely voters, a new low, and found likely voters favoring Democratic congressional candidates by 11 points. The poll also found voters now see Democrats as better at understanding problems, fixing them and keeping promises, a reversal from 2024. Discussion has since moved to the coalition: Trump's approval among white working-class voters sits at 51 percent, down from the 66 percent of their vote he won in 2024. What remains open is whether that erosion is priced into the district-level numbers.

How 2 podcasts covered it

  1. The Headlines, 2026-10-21 (3:41 to 5:32)
    Reports the Times-Siena numbers and super PAC ads
    Reports the fresh Times-Siena numbers: 36 percent approval among likely voters, Democrats up 11 in congressional districts, and a reversal from 2024 on which party keeps its promises. Pairs the poll with the $277 million Trump's operation spent since September and a recent surge in super PAC ads on Facebook and Instagram.
    New angle: Times-Siena has Trump at 36 percent among likely voters, with Democrats up 11 in congressional districts.
  2. Pod Save America, 2026-10-23 (6:38 to 10:18)
    Recaps the final Times-Siena poll
    Recaps the final Times-Siena poll of the cycle - Democrats up 52 to 41, Trump at 36 - and sets it against the Silver Bulletin average. Then moves to Republican money in Kansas, South Carolina and Mississippi and riffs on Trump's rally remarks.
  3. Pod Save America, 2026-10-23 (10:29 to 18:25)
    Digs into the poll's working-class numbers
    Walks through the Times/Siena poll's internals: Trump's approval among white working-class voters has fallen to 51 percent from 66 percent in 2024, with strong approval at 34 percent, and the generic ballot moves to 14 points on stated-likelihood screening and nine on past vote history. Also weighs Mississippi and South Carolina as long-shot Senate pickups.
    New angle: Trump's approval among white working-class voters is 51 percent, down from 66 percent of their 2024 vote.
Unpacking...