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United misses, guides low

Business · Heat 1.4 / 10 · 2 shows · 10m airtime

United Airlines reported third-quarter results on October 20, 2026: EPS of $2.54 against $2.57 expected and revenue of $17.88 billion, just shy of estimates, with fuel costs up 61 percent year over year. It guided fourth-quarter EPS to $0.50 to $1.50 against a $1.76 street estimate, based on jet fuel at $4.80 a gallon versus $3.90 in the third quarter. CEO Kirby says United is passing on about 72 percent of the fuel increase, targeting 100 percent over time, expects jet fuel to stay high into 2027, and predicts six to ten U.S. airlines will lose money this year. The discussion centers on whether fares can keep covering fuel.

How 2 podcasts covered it

  1. Closing Bell, 2026-10-20 (16:12 to 19:44)
    Breaks down United's guidance gap
    Reads United's third-quarter print line by line and lands on the guidance gap: fourth-quarter EPS of $0.50 to $1.50 against a $1.76 street estimate, built on jet fuel at $4.80 a gallon versus $3.90 in the quarter. Notes that even the high end leaves full-year EPS at $7.22, well under July's $9 to $11 guide.
    New angle: United guides fourth-quarter EPS to $0.50 to $1.50 on jet fuel at $4.80 a gallon, versus $3.90 in the third quarter.
  2. Squawk Pod, 2026-10-21 (47:27 to 49:01)
    Details the 72 percent fuel pass-through
    LeBeau interviews Kirby at United's new Houston terminal. Kirby puts the fuel hit at $8 billion year over year and says United is passing on about 72 percent of the increase, targeting 100 percent over time - a figure not previously on the record.
    New angle: Kirby says United is passing on about 72 percent of the fuel increase, targeting 100 percent over time.
  3. Squawk Pod, 2026-10-21 (49:01 to 52:35)
    Puts airline losses at six to ten
    Kirby, in a wide-ranging interview, puts a number on the industry's pain: six to ten U.S. airlines will lose money this year, and Spirit's exit bought the rest a reprieve. Also flags United crossing 50 percent of flights with Starlink this week and status-match applications running about four times normal.
    New angle: Kirby says six to ten U.S. airlines will lose money this year.
  4. Closing Bell, 2026-10-21 (26:50 to 28:28)
    Adds Kirby's jet fuel outlook into 2027
    LeBeau reports from United's new Houston terminal, where shares rose on premium demand even as the airline forecast a smaller fourth-quarter profit. The one thing not yet on the record: Kirby says he expects jet fuel to stay high into 2027.
    New angle: Kirby says he expects jet fuel to stay high into 2027.
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