# Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech

Business · Heat 2.0 / 10 · 7 shows · 2h 29m airtime

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish monetary policy speech at Jackson Hole on August 28, 2026, calling policy not restrictive and inflation headed the wrong way. The Fed raised rates in September, and the discussion has moved to how far the tightening runs. Collins says it is appropriate to raise rates a bit further by year end, while Williams sees no need for more than one more hike. Subran expects a December hike plus two more in Q1 2027 with inflation peaking near 4%, and BofA expects about 75 basis points in total, in December and March if not October. Wizman says skipping October makes a December hike hard to avoid; Kashkari argues the labor market is not the…

Page: https://boilpoints.com/point/warshs_hawkish_jackson_hole_speech_92773647

## Segments

- [Odd Lots](https://boilpoints.com/u/oddlots), 2026-08-31, 1:27 to 3:25: **Relays Barkin's pushback on the inflation framing**. Barkin's first reaction to Warsh's Jackson Hole speech: he calls it authentic and says he is aligned, but pushes back on the inflation framing - it is not in the right place rather than definitely heading the wrong way - and refuses to read September guidance into it. New angle: Barkin says inflation is not in the right place rather than definitely heading the wrong direction.
- [Odd Lots](https://boilpoints.com/u/oddlots), 2026-08-31, 15:49 to 17:33: **Counters the 65-month framing with 47 plus 18**. Barkin answers Warsh's Jackson Hole charge that inflation has run above target for 65 months and is squarely on the Fed, offering a 47-month-plus-18-month counter-framing: inflation reached 2.3 or 2.4 percent by March 2025 before AI, tariffs and oil pushed it back up. New angle: Barkin counters Warsh's 65-month framing with a 47-plus-18-month one; inflation was 2.3–2.4% in March 2025.
- [Marketplace](https://boilpoints.com/u/marketplace), 2026-08-31, 1:34 to 4:39: **Reports rising odds of a September hike**. Reports rising market expectations of a September FOMC hike after Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, with economists split on whether it is warranted. Adds the December odds, mortgage rates near 7 percent and the political-independence read. New angle: Market odds of a September FOMC hike have risen, with roughly even money on another quarter-point hike in December.
- [Odd Lots](https://boilpoints.com/u/oddlots), 2026-09-01, 1:54 to 7:11: **Grades Warsh's speech a B-minus**. Adam Posen grades Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech a B-minus, reading it as deliberately more normal than last year's but still muddled, and argues Warsh is preserving maximum last-minute discretion rather than pre-committing to a hike.
- [Odd Lots](https://boilpoints.com/u/oddlots), 2026-09-01, 12:49 to 16:35: **Argues the Fed outlier holds after controls**. Posen defends Warsh's critique of the Fed's inflation record but argues the Fed is an outlier only after controlling for energy dependence, starting inflation and fiscal looseness - Biden's blowout and Trump's tax cuts included. Also previews the King-led communications task force as the committee likeliest to surprise. New angle: Controlling for energy dependence, starting inflation and fiscal looseness, the Fed is an inflation outlier; the King-led communications task force is the likeliest to surprise.
- [Odd Lots](https://boilpoints.com/u/oddlots), 2026-09-01, 20:01 to 23:37: **Questions Warsh's family fight line**. Posen reads Warsh's repeated 'family fight' line as insincere, but concedes Powell suppressed dissent during COVID and the Trump pressure campaign - a first-hand MPC comparison to Mervyn King's QE question moratorium. New angle: Warsh has used the phrase 'family fight' in both of his press conferences.
- [Odd Lots](https://boilpoints.com/u/oddlots), 2026-09-01, 23:41 to 30:02: **Names the Fed communications task force**. Names the members of the Fed communications task force - King, Fisher, Rajan, Einstein, Dinan - and reads King's and Fisher's skepticism of central bank communication and forecasting as a sign the recommendations could be radical. New angle: The Fed communications task force includes Mervyn King, Peter Fisher, Raghu Rajan, Jennifer Einstein and Karen Dinan.
- [The Journal.](https://boilpoints.com/u/thejournal), 2026-09-04, 7:09 to 8:43: **Recaps the speech and bond uncertainty**. Recaps Warsh's Jackson Hole speech and the uncertainty it created for bond investors, plus his move away from forward guidance. It stays inside what's already on the record - the speech, the hike signal, the market's read. New angle: Warsh removed forward-looking forecasts from Fed statements.
- [The Journal.](https://boilpoints.com/u/thejournal), 2026-09-04, 8:47 to 10:18: **Recaps the Jackson Hole speech with market color**. Recaps Warsh's Jackson Hole speech - the fight against inflation isn't over, the Fed might hike again - and stays inside the framing already on the record, adding only market color about 50-50 odds and higher-for-longer talk.
- [The Journal.](https://boilpoints.com/u/thejournal), 2026-09-04, 10:18 to 10:54: **Reports traders pricing a Fed hike at 50-50**. Bond investors are split on whether the Fed hikes at this month's meeting, with traders pricing it at 50-50; the uncertainty itself is driving Treasury market volatility. New angle: Traders price a Fed hike at 50-50, and the uncertainty is causing Treasury market volatility.
- [Marketplace](https://boilpoints.com/u/marketplace), 2026-09-09, 5:22 to 11:16: **Interviews a former colleague on the speech**. A former Fed colleague of Warsh reads his Jackson Hole speech as deliberately open-ended: more criteria for action, no bottom line, and a money-supply lens inherited from Friedman. Adds a scheduled CPI print and next week's FOMC as the near-term tests. New angle: Kroszner says Warsh gave more decision criteria at Jackson Hole but no bottom line, and predicts no Fed move next week unless CPI surprises.
- [Prof G Markets](https://boilpoints.com/u/profgmarkets), 2026-09-11, 31:21 to 33:14: **Assesses Warsh's hands-off tenure**. Katie Martin assesses Warsh's early tenure, saying his hands-off approach backfired by signaling he was fine with higher yields, and expects a more conciliatory stance. It stays inside the framing already on the record.
- [Prof G Markets](https://boilpoints.com/u/profgmarkets), 2026-09-14, 1:09:53 to 1:11:41: **Previews the FOMC with hike odds**. Previews Wednesday's FOMC decision, with Kalshi hike odds above 60%, and both hosts predict a quarter-point hike on inflation and oil above $100. It stays inside the market-odds and Warsh-framing coverage already on the record. New angle: Kalshi odds of a Warsh rate hike are above 60%.
- [Marketplace](https://boilpoints.com/u/marketplace), 2026-09-14, 1:53 to 7:36: **Interviews Edelberg on standing pat**. Interviews Wendy Edelberg ahead of the FOMC meeting. She argues the Fed can stand pat: core CPI is near target, and end-of-September data will revise core PCE down a few tenths and show weaker employment. She puts hike odds at a coin flip against the market's 90 percent. New angle: End-of-September data will revise core PCE inflation down by a few tenths and show weaker employment.
- [Marketplace](https://boilpoints.com/u/marketplace), 2026-09-14, 10:55 to 13:03: **Reports the dollar's rise into the expected hike**. Reports the dollar strengthening into the expected Fed hike, with economists explaining the mechanics: higher T-bill yields pull investors who must buy dollars, and the dollar is the least-bad currency in a weak field. Adds a named forecaster's doubt about how long the hawkishness lasts.
- [Marketplace](https://boilpoints.com/u/marketplace), 2026-09-15, 1:36 to 4:21: **Previews the Fed meeting and hike odds**. Previews the Fed's two-day meeting ending tomorrow, with Wall Street pricing a 90-plus percent chance of a quarter-point hike and three to four hikes by next summer. Adds a dissenting view that the hike is not priced into stocks. New angle: Societe Generale's Jan Grone says the rate hike is not priced into stocks.
- [Prof G Markets](https://boilpoints.com/u/profgmarkets), 2026-09-16, 23:16 to 35:51: **Reads the inflation report through Fed futures**. Zandi reads the inflation report and the yield move through the Fed's decision: CME futures at 95%, the 10-year below 4% the day before the Iran bombing, break-evens still anchored, and a warning that a hike series plus Warsh's thin communication is the misstep risk. New angle: CME futures price a 95% probability of a rate hike; the 10-year was below 4% on February 27, the day before the U.S. began bombing Iran.
- [The Journal.](https://boilpoints.com/u/thejournal), 2026-09-17, 6:36 to 8:47: **Recounts the July dissent and the silence**. Timiraos walks through Warsh's first meeting in June and the July hold, where three of twelve officials dissented and Warsh declined to explain the decision - the credibility gap that set up the Jackson Hole speech. New angle: Three of twelve FOMC officials dissented at the July meeting, and Warsh gave no rationale for holding rates.
- [The Journal.](https://boilpoints.com/u/thejournal), 2026-09-17, 8:47 to 9:48: **Adds the market reaction to Warsh's remarks**. Revisits the July press conference and adds the market's real-time reaction: long-term Treasury yields rose as Warsh spoke, read as investors pricing either more inflation or higher rates later. Frames the pre-August split between the Trump-ally and inflation-fighter readings of Warsh. New angle: Long-term Treasury yields rose during Warsh's July press conference as markets reacted badly in real time.
- [Marketplace](https://boilpoints.com/u/marketplace), 2026-09-18, 1:48 to 8:28: **Runs through the speech and the political fallout**. Runs through Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks and the hike that followed, then turns to the political fallout: Trump's sub-1% demand, his call with Warsh before the meeting, and the SVB report that has people worried Michael Barr is next after Lisa Cook.
- [Marketplace](https://boilpoints.com/u/marketplace), 2026-09-21, 6:54 to 13:43: **Pairs Warsh's neutral rate with Goolsbee**. Pulls the neutral-rate exchange from Warsh's press conference and pairs it with Goolsbee's London remarks: the inflation sources - the oil shock and the AI investment boom - are not interest-rate sensitive, so hikes restrain the parts of the economy that aren't causing the problem.
- [Marketplace](https://boilpoints.com/u/marketplace), 2026-09-24, 1:29 to 4:12: **Adds the Fed officials signaling more tightening**. Reports the post-meeting Fed chatter Warsh cannot suppress: Schmidt, Barr and Williams all signal more tightening, with Williams putting another hike in play by year-end. Adds the first official confirmation that the Fed actually hiked last week.
- [Bloomberg Surveillance](https://boilpoints.com/u/bloombergsurveillance), 2026-09-28, 0:38 to 11:57: **Makes the bull case for long yields**. Bob Michele of J.P. Morgan Asset Management makes the bull case for the long end with yields over 5%, arguing the Fed may not need six hikes and that higher energy prices are more a headwind than an inflation threat. Reaction and framing around the Warsh Fed, not a new development.
- [Bloomberg Surveillance](https://boilpoints.com/u/bloombergsurveillance), 2026-09-28, 11:57 to 16:15: **Argues the Fed never got restrictive enough**. Stifel's Lindsey Piegza reads the September hike as justified by a neutral data run and a hot PMI, and expects only minimal further tightening. She argues the Fed never got restrictive enough after the pandemic and that slowing the economy, and unemployment, is the price of 2%.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-09-30, 17:52 to 22:39: **Argues the bar is high for an October hike**. Kaplan argues the bar is high for an October hike and reads the bond market as unable to decipher Warsh. Adds a supply-side oil shock: about half of Russian refineries are offline or damaged. New angle: About 50% of Russian refineries are fully offline or damaged.
- [Bloomberg Surveillance](https://boilpoints.com/u/bloombergsurveillance), 2026-10-01, 6:47 to 19:52: **Adds Kashkari's read on inflation and jobs**. Kashkari, on the record, gives the FOMC's internal read: the labor market is not the primary source of inflation, so a rise in unemployment is not necessary to get inflation back to target, though he will not rule it out. He also describes Warsh's chairmanship as remarkably consistent with the Powell-era meeting format. New angle: Kashkari says the labor market is not the primary source of inflation, so higher unemployment is not necessary to reach target.
- [Big Take](https://boilpoints.com/u/bigtake), 2026-10-05, 12:04 to 13:32: **Grades Warsh's communication against Greenspan**. Heather Long grades Warsh's communication: Jackson Hole and September were steps in the right direction, but he has far to go to match Greenspan's fine tuning, and she wants more forward guidance rather than AI optimism. Assessment, not a new development.
- [Bloomberg Surveillance](https://boilpoints.com/u/bloombergsurveillance), 2026-10-09, 14:29 to 15:54: **Argues skipping October makes December hard**. Macquarie's Thierry Wizman reads the week as a dovish turn: senior Fed staff walking away from an October hike, with the revised-lower PCE and weaker wages as the reasons. He argues skipping October makes a December hike hard to avoid. New angle: Wizman says it will be difficult for the FOMC to avoid hiking in December if it skips October.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-13, 4:39 to 7:41: **Reports Collins and Williams on one more hike**. Liesman reports on-the-record guidance from Collins and Williams: Collins backs one more hike by year end, Williams sees no need for more than one. Adds Hammack's resistance to an October pause and market odds of 90% December, 21% October. New angle: Collins says it is appropriate to raise rates a bit further by year end; Williams sees no need for more than one more hike.
- [Bloomberg Surveillance](https://boilpoints.com/u/bloombergsurveillance), 2026-10-14, 14:07 to 21:46: **Reads the dot plot as real guidance**. Bullard reads the September dot plot as the committee's real forward guidance: a hike in September and one more by year end, with a flat 2027 outlook and conviction that inflation dissipates in the first half of 2027. He calls the market reaction to September overdone and argues the U.S. is a producer, not a consumer, of oil. Mostly a…
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-26, 23:58 to 29:08: **Previews the FOMC hold with two dissents**. Brings Morgan Stanley's Michael Gapen on to preview Wednesday's FOMC decision: a hawkish hold, with the statement and the dissent count as the tells. He expects two dissents, down from three in July, and says the economy can absorb 75 to 100 basis points of hikes. New angle: Morgan Stanley expects two dissents at this meeting, down from three in July.
- [Bloomberg Surveillance](https://boilpoints.com/u/bloombergsurveillance), 2026-10-27, 0:34 to 8:07: **Maps a December hike and two more in 2027**. Allianz's Subran maps the path past this week's hold: a December hike, then two more in Q1 2027, with U.S. inflation peaking near 4% early next year. He argues the Fed should lean on the balance sheet and forward guidance instead of the policy rate. New angle: Subran expects a December hike plus two more in Q1 2027, with U.S. inflation peaking near 4% in early 2027.
- [Closing Bell](https://boilpoints.com/u/closingbell), 2026-10-27, 28:03 to 34:48: **Argues the Fed should hike, not pause**. BofA's Aditya Bhave argues the Fed should hike at tomorrow's meeting, not pause, and puts a number on the cycle: about 75 basis points in total, with December and March if not October. He frames the October decision as Warsh's chance to break the market's habit of trading off other officials' guidance. New angle: BofA expects about 75 basis points of hikes in total, with December and March if not October.
- [Bloomberg Surveillance](https://boilpoints.com/u/bloombergsurveillance), 2026-10-29, 4:56 to 6:08: **Flags Cook's dissent and her December hearing**. Feroli and the hosts flag Governor Cook's dissent in favor of a hike as the surprise of the meeting, noting she is not a traditional hawk and that the White House is trying to remove her, with a hearing set for December. New angle: A hearing on removing Governor Cook is set for December.