Animal Spirits Podcast

@animalspiritspodcast · Podcast

Latest segments

• Netflix's growth problem, 2026-10-28
  Argues quality shows fix Netflix growth
  Picks up the Netflix growth debate with a valuation twist: the business added $12.8 billion in run-rate revenue over 24 months, more than Peacock, HBO Max and Paramount each take in globally, yet the stock is down 6% over five years against a 94% gain for the Qs. Argues the fix is quality shows, not the algorithm.
• JPMorgan blocks agents, 2026-10-28
  Reads the Axios report on blocked agents
  A short detour off a ticket-resale anecdote: reads the Axios report on unauthorized agents inside bank accounts, floats the idea that banks want regulation, and notes Chase and most banks have already blocked agents. Stays inside the week's coverage.
• Jobless claims under 200K, 2026-10-28
  Adds Microsoft buyouts to the claims read
  Picks up the claims series a week later: 194,000, the fourth lowest reading since the 1960s, and uses it to argue AI has not yet shown up in labor data. Adds Microsoft's 60,000 early-retirement offer and a Goldman finding on AI adoption and employment growth.
• Tech stock sell-off, 2026-10-28
  Frames bonds as the anti-AI hedge
  Reads the bond rally as the other side of the tech sell-off: the 10-year's near-20-basis-point drop was the biggest since Silicon Valley Bank failed, and NVIDIA stepping into Meta's equity raise is framed as a sign the debt spigot is closing. Names bonds and low-vol stocks as the anti-AI hedge.
• Anthropic's IPO filing, 2026-10-28
  Walks the S-1 with a bubble bet
  Walks the preliminary S-1 with a Polymarket AI-bubble bet as the frame: customer counts, $141 billion raised, $112 billion in cash, and the operating loss shrinking from $2.135 billion to $693 million. Reads it as a real company and stays inside the filing's own numbers.
• Ten companies drive earnings, 2026-10-28
  Recaps the WSJ earnings concentration story
  Walks through the WSJ concentration story: two AI chip makers at 34% of the earnings boom, forward earnings up while forward P/E falls, and the top 25 versus bottom 25 gap now wider than at the dot-com peak. Stays inside the article's numbers, with Ben undecided on whether AI busts before it pays off.
• Netflix replaces Bajaria, 2026-10-21
  Recaps the shakeup through the hosts' losses
  Recaps the Netflix shakeup through the hosts' own losses: the layoffs, Bajaria's exit and her $20 billion budget, and the stock barely moving. Frames it as a teachable moment on a winner whose shares still lag the S&P by about 50% this decade.
• Property tax revolt, 2026-10-21
  Widens the Akron profile to two dozen states
  Picks up a Politico profile of a 72-year-old Akron homeowner and widens it to the state-level push: more than two dozen states have moved on property tax cuts in two years, with Georgia, Indiana and Wyoming already cutting billions. The hosts argue the burden lands on renters and cite Prop 13's mobility damage.
• Apollo's agent bank-run note, 2026-10-21
  Adds the FT's $500 billion agent estimate
  Picks up the agentic bank-run thread with the FT's $500 billion estimate of what agents could cost banks by winning better savings rates, and notes JPMorgan, Citigroup and Bank of America moving to block or restrict outside agents. Reads it as the real-world barrier the tech prognosticators miss.
• September CPI shock, 2026-10-21
  Breaks down energy's share of the CPI jump
  Works through Duality Research's CPI composition chart: energy is 3.2% of the index weight but more than 30% of September's increase. Argues the war, not AI, is the main driver, then trades beef-price anecdotes.
• Musk's SpaceX share giveaway, 2026-10-21
  Reads the giveaway as posturing on backlash
  Recaps the Musk tweet and Anthropic's public fund, reading both as posturing to head off backlash as AI concentrates wealth. Anecdote about no-data-center signs in rural Michigan; no new facts on the pledge itself.
• Schwab's record quarter, 2026-10-21
  Recaps Schwab's record quarter and cash flows
  Recaps Schwab's record quarter - the $190 billion in net new assets, up 38%, the $4 trillion in monthly client cash movement, and the Gen Z and millennial share of new households - then drifts into a CoreWeave canary debate. The Schwab material stays inside what is already on the record.
• Hot CPI selloff, 2026-10-21
  Adds record five-day CoreWeave net purchases
  Turns to the buy side of the CoreWeave rout: the stock is down about 60% from a post-IPO high near $180, and five-day net purchases set a record last week. Reads it as evidence of a durable 2020s risk appetite, with several AI booms and busts rather than one blow-off top.
• Hot CPI selloff, 2026-10-21
  Asks whether CoreWeave is the AI canary
  Uses Rocky IV as a frame to ask whether CoreWeave is the canary in the AI coal mine. Explains the neocloud model, NVIDIA's ownership stake and the debt stack, then argues the bond market's discipline is healthy. Stays inside the week's coverage.
• AI debt issuance slowdown, 2026-10-21
  Pits two AI borrowing headlines against each other
  Pits two New York Times headlines ten days apart against each other - high rates aren't slowing the AI boom versus weak links in AI borrowing - and argues the bond market is the real governor. Stays inside the framing already on the record, adding only a 2022 inflation-print analogy.
• September CPI shock, 2026-10-21
  Recaps the CPI selloff and debates the carnage
  Opens the episode on the market reaction to the hot September CPI: roughly 80 days without a 1% correction, then a 2% S&P drop on Tuesday. It retells the selloff and argues over whether a 2% drawdown counts as carnage, staying inside the reaction already on the record.