The Compound and Friends

@thecompoundandfriends · Podcast

Latest segments

• Microsoft's $25B bond sale, 2026-10-30
  Frames the bond sale with cloud growth charts
  Uses Microsoft's cloud revenue chart - 30% growth, fastest since Q3 2022 at nearly three times the size - to frame the $25 billion debt offering and a stock that fell anyway. The bond sale itself is a one-line recap; the new material is cloud growth and the buyback-to-issuance reversal.
• Robinhood Q3 earnings, 2026-10-27
  Reveals Robinhood as the mystery chart
  Reveals Robinhood as the mystery chart on its earnings day and argues about the stock rather than the numbers: Josh wants to flip bullish on the business but hates how much crypto matters to the story, and the chart looks ugly.
• Meta's $95B raise, 2026-10-27
  Breaks down the structure of Meta's raise
  Breaks down the structure of Meta's raise: the upsized $25 billion common at $625, a $12.5 billion convertible preferred at 6.5% converting by 2029, and the $60 billion at-the-market program in the new Class C. Reads the supply overhang as a reason to avoid the stock into year end.
• Meta's $95B raise, 2026-10-27
  Reads Meta's raise through cost of capital
  Reads Meta's raise through the cost-of-capital lens: the special committee chair's own words on a challenging environment, Musk's neocloud warning, Nebius's 364-day Citi bridge after its CEO said asset-backed markets were shut, and Ben Thompson on dilution.
• Anthropic's IPO filing, 2026-10-27
  Adds Anthropic's customer concentration figures
  Walks the S-1 customer and cash numbers and adds two figures not yet on the record: about 1,900 customers spending $1 million or more and roughly 250 at $10 million or more. Also notes no single customer topped 10% of revenue for the nine months to September 30, with about 79% coming from outside the top five.
• Meta earnings preview, 2026-10-23
  Walks the post-earnings charts and Muse call
  Recaps the post-earnings swing from about $750 to $650 and a call dominated by Muse, then walks the charts: expenses outrunning revenue, the first negative free cash flow quarter since 2012, ad impressions up 10% and price per ad up 14%. Stays inside the week's coverage.
• Bending Spoons IPO, 2026-10-20
  Adds the leverage math to the IPO story
  Walks through the Bending Spoons model - buying declining apps, cutting staff, running them with AI - and lays out the bear case: a hold-rated stock, 3% organic growth in Q2, and nearly $5 billion of debt with interest expense tripled. Adds the first hard financials and the leverage math to a story previously told through its IPO pop and…
• AI debt issuance slowdown, 2026-10-20
  Adds Yardeni's read on AI credit spreads
  Reads Ed Yardeni's note framing the widening AI credit spreads as bond vigilantes enforcing discipline, with CoreWeave and Oracle paying up while Meta stays cheap. Adds Yardeni's claim that the AI bond rout drove a flight to quality that stopped the Treasury selloff.
• OpenAI and Anthropic IPO economics, 2026-10-20
  Tallies the committed spend in the revised S-1
  Reads the revised S-1 published by the Wall Street Journal and tallies the committed spend: $111 billion to Google Cloud, $110 billion to AWS, $31 billion to Microsoft regardless of usage, and up to $86 billion renting Nvidia chips. Argues the $80 billion first-half loss is mostly accounting and that revenue growth outpacing expenses is the number that matters.
• SpaceX's first adjusted profit, 2026-10-20
  Frames SpaceX as a data center business
  Walks through the reported quarter: $14.6 billion in revenue, up 161%, with the superintelligence category doing much of the work. Frames SpaceX as having become a data center business and argues Musk keeps opening new categories to frustrate short sellers.
• Netflix replaces Bajaria, 2026-10-20
  Walks through results after the Netflix shakeup
  Walks through Netflix's quarterly results after the shakeup: revenue growth of 11.8 percent, the slowest since 2023, guidance 0.2 percent below the midpoint, and 2026 ad revenue now expected at $2.7 billion instead of about $3 billion. Brown explains selling half his position at about $70.
• Hot CPI selloff, 2026-10-16
  Adds CoreWeave stock sales and insurance funding
  Adds two CoreWeave developments to the debt story: the CEO has sold $682 million of stock, and an FT story reports the company is targeting unlimited insurance money to fund the buildout. Eisman uses Mark Walter's Dodgers and Lakers purchases as the template for insurance-funded control.
• OpenAI revenue revision, 2026-10-16
  Traces Oracle's backlog to OpenAI via Luria
  Eisman walks through Oracle's backlog surge and the Gil Luria report attributing the entire $300 billion increase to OpenAI, then traces the stock from $230 to $330 and back to $130. A specific figure and attribution the OpenAI revenue thread had not recorded.
• OpenAI revenue revision, 2026-10-16
  Recaps the revenue revision and Anthropic's slowdown
  Eisman restates the OpenAI revenue revision - $50 billion annualized at the end of September against $70 billion a month earlier - and pairs it with Anthropic's deceleration to 43% growth from 140%, calling it the end of tokenmaxxing. A recap of the week's numbers, with the Anthropic figure the only addition.
• Hot CPI selloff, 2026-10-16
  Argues an OpenAI bankruptcy would not break banks
  Eisman walks through the AI funding chain - CoreWeave's 15% debt yield and 60% drawdown, Nvidia's five-customer concentration, Oracle's OpenAI backlog - and argues an OpenAI bankruptcy would cause a recession but not a banking crisis. Mostly a recap of the week's CoreWeave coverage, with the GM parallel as the new framing.
• Ithaca acquires Bumble, 2026-10-13
  Traces Bumble's slide from IPO to take-private
  Walks the full arc of Bumble's public life - the 2021 IPO, the first-day run past $80, the slide to about $2 - and puts numbers on the take-private: roughly $6 a share, up 56% on the news, a valuation that fell from $8.5 billion to about $300 million before the $1 billion deal.
• S&P 500 record, seven stocks, 2026-10-13
  Brings in Goldman's breadth measure and Chisholm
  Brings in Goldman's preferred breadth measure at its weakest since the dot-com bubble and Fidelity's Denise Chisholm on weak participation, finding an 82% historical probability of a positive 12-month return from here.
• Bank Q3 earnings beat, 2026-10-13
  Walks Goldman's quarter and the succession answer
  Walks through Goldman's blowout quarter line by line - $17 a share against $13.65 expected, record equities and advisory revenue - and adds the succession answer, the $10 trillion AI build-out view, and JPMorgan's raised net interest income guidance.
• JPMorgan opens earnings season, 2026-10-13
  Goes behind the headline to the buyback drop
  Goes into the JPMorgan quarter behind the headline: $5 trillion in wealth assets, roughly $700 million of AI costs for the year, and a buyback that fell to $1 billion from $7 billion last quarter. Also reads Citi's 5.6% drop as a technical breakdown after soft fee income.
• S&P 500 record, seven stocks, 2026-10-13
  Compares tech's weight to the dot-com peak
  Fifteen-year comparison of index composition: tech's 37 percent weight now tops the dot-com peak of 34 percent, energy has shrunk from 12 percent to 2 percent, and Nvidia alone is worth four times the entire August 2011 top five.