Cook moves 11 House races

News · Heat 2.7 / 10 · 2 shows · 6m airtime

On October 19, 2026, the Cook Political Report moved 11 more House races toward Democrats ahead of the midterms, many in red states Trump won handily in 2024. Dave Wasserman credits district polling running five to ten points more favorable than prior expectations, and says more than 20 Republican seats are toss-up or worse. The discussion has settled on a median outcome of a Democratic gain of 15 to 20 seats. Fourteen high-quality House district polls now show shifts from about two points in Pennsylvania's 1st to nearly 23 in North Carolina's 11th.

How 2 podcasts covered it

1. Pivot, 2026-10-25 (8:53 to 10:42)
   Walks through 11 House races shifted toward Democrats
   Wasserman walks through the House map two weeks out: 11 races shifted toward Democrats on district polls running five to ten points better than expected, mid-decade redistricting netted Republicans only three or four seats, and the median outcome is a Democratic gain of 15 to 20.
   New angle: Cook moved 11 more House races toward Democrats, with a median outcome of a 15 to 20 seat gain.
2. Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar, 2026-10-27 (26:25 to 30:28)
   Breaks down 14 district polls and their swings
   Logan Phillips walks through 14 high-quality House district polls, the first nonpartisan district-level data of the cycle. The range runs from a nearly 23-point Democratic shift in North Carolina's 11th to two points in Pennsylvania's 1st, with Texas 35 and Arizona 2 swinging D plus 17.
   New angle: Fourteen high-quality House district polls show shifts from about two points in Pennsylvania's 1st to nearly 23 in North Carolina's 11th.