Bloomberg Surveillance

@bloombergsurveillance · Podcast

Latest segments

• State AI data center backlash, 2026-10-31
  Counts 300 data center moratoriums
  Fryer ties the data center backlash to the midterms: big tech is quietly staffing up for a Democratic sweep, and she puts a number on the local resistance - 300 construction moratoriums in place, plus bipartisan bills on taxes and tax breaks.
• Tech stock sell-off, 2026-10-30
  Adds closing levels and the VIX spike
  Instant reaction to the selloff, with the Markets Live editor noting the rotation-out-of-tech story broke down because everything sold, including the equal-weight index. Adds the day's closing levels and a VIX that spiked to 24-25 before closing below 20.
• Alphabet's Q3 miss, 2026-10-30
  Reads the miss as AI cannibalizing its base
  Sarah Hunt reads Alphabet's quarter as the tell that AI spending is now funded by a base business AI is cannibalizing, and ties that to multiple compression as cash flows flip negative into 2027. Interpretation layered on the earnings already on the record, not a new development.
• State AI data center backlash, 2026-10-29
  Frames capex risk around rates and politics
  Rana frames the AI capex question around two constraints: higher rates limiting funding and political opposition to data centers. He points to Microsoft's disclosure of a delay at a third-party data center as the first concrete sign the build-out can slip.
• Amazon Q3 earnings preview, 2026-10-29
  Defends Amazon capex against cash outflow
  Rana defends Amazon's roughly $220 billion cash capex against a trailing twelve-month free cash outflow of $42.4 billion, leaning on AWS margins near 39% and a cloud run rate of about $180 billion growing 40% a year. The outflow figure is new to the record; the capex number is not.
• Amazon Q3 earnings preview, 2026-10-29
  Reads the print as merely matching cloud growth
  Rana reads the print as Amazon merely meeting 39% cloud growth while Google and Microsoft beat, and flags the Q4 sales guide as in line with the $244.5 billion estimate. The after-hours drop is put at about 6.7%, a smaller figure than earlier coverage.
• Intel's weak Q4 guide, 2026-10-29
  Previews Intel's analyst call questions
  Sobhani names the two questions he wants on Intel's analyst call - when gross margin finds a floor and when foundry packaging turns into material revenue - and flags AMD as next week's read-through. Analysis and preview, no new development.
• Intel's weak Q4 guide, 2026-10-29
  Poses a counterfactual on the Intel guide
  Poses a counterfactual on the Intel guide: had data center supply been there, the top-line hit would have been smaller but gross margin pressure would remain. Frames investor patience against semiconductor peers beating by billions and guiding years out.
• Intel's weak Q4 guide, 2026-10-29
  Breaks down the margin miss and node mix
  Bloomberg Intelligence's Sobhani works through the print: data center demand is strong but supply-starved, and the gross margin miss of more than 600 basis points quarter over quarter comes from loading new, costlier nodes while the higher-margin PC business sags. A supply-and-mix read on the guide.
• Fed holds at 3.75-4%, 2026-10-29
  Recaps the October hold as a September call
  Bullard reviews the October hold as a decision effectively made in September, with a quarterly pace in mind and Williams' wait-until-December view carrying the committee. He argues Warsh should have said the Fed just moved and wanted to see the effect, and that the transparency revolution under Bernanke is here to stay.
• Fed holds at 3.75-4%, 2026-10-29
  Grades the hold and pivots to allocation
  BlackRock's Chaudhuri grades the October hold below an A-plus but credits Warsh with explaining the pause, then pivots to portfolio advice: quality equities, the belly of the curve, and record October fixed income ETF inflows. Reaction and allocation, not new reporting on the decision.
• Fed holds at 3.75-4%, 2026-10-29
  Argues the meeting cut is material to markets
  Feroli argues the reduced meeting schedule is material to markets and the rationale unconvincing, and flags that Warsh once told the Bank of England to cut from 12 meetings to eight. Adds the mechanics of the gap and the term-premium read.
• Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech, 2026-10-29
  Flags Cook's dissent and her December hearing
  Feroli and the hosts flag Governor Cook's dissent in favor of a hike as the surprise of the meeting, noting she is not a traditional hawk and that the White House is trying to remove her, with a hearing set for December.
• Q3 GDP first look, 2026-10-29
  Adds the equipment spending beat in GDP
  Feroli reads the morning's GDP and claims data as making it hard to call policy restrictive, and flags a detail the first pass missed: equipment spending beat expectations, up almost 20% annualized, so the strength is flying on one engine.
• Q3 GDP first look, 2026-10-29
  Reads GDP through the consumer and capex
  Runs through the same GDP release with a consumer lens: personal consumption near 4% surprised to the upside, claims stay under 200,000, and this week's mega capital raises from Microsoft, SpaceX, Anthropic and Meta are read as fuel for capex and inflation.
• State AI data center backlash, 2026-10-29
  Argues markets underrate state AI politics
  PIMCO's Libby Cantrill argues the market underrates state-level AI politics: 36 governorships are up, many candidates run anti-data center, and the easiest move for a new governor is a New York-style moratorium. She also expects more spending and a bigger deficit whoever wins.
• Oil tops $100, 2026-10-29
  Explains why crude holds near $114
  Ed Morse explains why crude stays near $114 with Hormuz closed: uncertainty over post-midterm U.S. strikes, a refining system that cannot make enough diesel, and inventories at roughly a decade low in days of forward demand cover. Frames it against 1978-82 and the 1973 embargo, arguing lower oil intensity of GDP has muted the price response.
• Q3 GDP first look, 2026-10-29
  Reads GDP through nominal growth and yields
  Bloomberg Intelligence's Jersey reads the morning's inflation and GDP prints through nominal GDP: 6% nominal growth supports 5% Treasury yields and corporate yields near 6%. He expects deliberate, not every-meeting, hikes and flags base effects putting headline CPI near 2% by next summer.
• Q3 GDP first look, 2026-10-29
  Breaks down the 3.4% real GDP print
  Wells Fargo's Cronk reads the first look at third-quarter GDP: 3.4% real growth, a 2.3% price index and nominal GDP near 6%. He argues the Fed must keep hiking to reach 2% and sees the 10-year above 5.50% next year.
• Fed holds at 3.75-4%, 2026-10-28
  Questions Warsh's vague communication style
  McKee, passed over at the press conference, argues Warsh wants a new communication style but leaves Wall Street with a vague impression. Notes only one CPI print before December and asks which meeting the Fed would skip if it cuts meeting frequency.