Fed holds at 3.75-4%
Business · Heat 10.0 / 10 · 8 shows · 1h 45m airtime
The FOMC left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.75 to 4 percent at its October 2026 meeting, citing the need for more information. Cook dissented for the first time in four years and Hammack for the third time this year, both favoring a quarter-point hike. The discussion has moved to how far the committee sits from the market and from inflation: futures price an 85 percent chance of a December hike and 66 percent for March, while Gapen says roughly 18 of 19 participants back a modest recalibration rather than consecutive hikes. Morgan Stanley expects hikes in December and March, with core PCE at 2.6 percent next year.
How 8 podcasts covered it
- Bloomberg Surveillance, 2026-10-28 (2:27 to 8:17)
Reports the hold and the steepening curve
Breaking coverage of the October hold, set against Warsh's hawkish opening statement. Notes the steepening curve, weaker dollar and the hint that market volatility justified waiting, and flags Williams's November 6 appearance as the next guidance point.
New angle: The FOMC held the target range at 3.75 to 4 percent, citing the need for more information. - Bloomberg Surveillance, 2026-10-28 (8:17 to 12:56)
Reads the hawkish hold and market pricing
Misra, who sat through the press conference, says Warsh tried to signal a hawkish hold but never explained the decision or the reaction function. She reads his nod to tighter financial conditions and interest-sensitive AI as the Fed letting the market do its work.
New angle: Misra says the market prices three hikes, more than the most hawkish Fed official. - Bloomberg Surveillance, 2026-10-28 (12:56 to 15:28)
Argues Warsh is trapped in old architecture
Reaction segment on the October hold: Ferro argues Warsh is trapped in post-crisis communication architecture and that the core of the committee, through Williams and Jefferson, had already signaled the hold. Stays inside the decision and its press conference. - Bloomberg Surveillance, 2026-10-28 (15:28 to 17:08)
Counts FOMC votes and frames the risk
Misra counts votes on the FOMC after the hold, framing the decision as risk management against inflation spreading and the committee as divided over whether the shock is supply or demand. The market-pricing line repeats what the card already has; the press-conference snub of Mike McKee is banter. - Bloomberg Surveillance, 2026-10-28 (17:03 to 19:15)
Questions Warsh's vague communication style
McKee, passed over at the press conference, argues Warsh wants a new communication style but leaves Wall Street with a vague impression. Notes only one CPI print before December and asks which meeting the Fed would skip if it cuts meeting frequency. - Closing Bell, 2026-10-28 (1:00 to 5:00)
Carries Warsh's post-decision remarks
Carries Warsh's post-decision press conference: he says the last hike's market effects matched his expectations, that growth is not causing inflation, and that financial conditions have tightened a bit. He also says he has no knowledge of Fed involvement in the White House hearing on Lisa Cook.
New angle: Warsh says he has no knowledge of the Fed being involved in the White House hearing on Lisa Cook. - Closing Bell, 2026-10-28 (5:57 to 30:17)
Argues the Fed is behind the curve
Gundlach reacts to the hold and press conference and argues the Fed is behind the curve, with his inflation model pointing to headline CPI starting with a four for several months. He also flags widening spreads on AI-adjacent credit and a debt clock that jumped half a trillion dollars in two months.
New angle: Gundlach's inflation model has headline CPI starting with a four for several months, maybe five. - WSJ What's News, 2026-10-28 (1:17 to 3:44)
Breaks down the two dissents behind the hold
Covers the October hold with the detail the earlier coverage lacked: two dissents, Cook's first in four years and Hammack's third this year, plus the upgrade of the economy to expanding at a strong pace. Reads the dissents as momentum toward a December hike.
New angle: Cook dissented for the first time in four years and Hammack for the third time this year, both for a quarter-point hike. - Closing Bell, 2026-10-28 (8:53 to 21:52)
Interviews Bessent on the Iran contraction
Sits down with Treasury Secretary Bessent right after the decision. Bessent backs Warsh, calls the inflation an energy supply shock, and puts a number on the Iran squeeze: an economy contracting as much as 25 percent from March to March.
New angle: Bessent says Iran's economy may contract by as much as 25 percent from March to March. - Marketplace, 2026-10-28 (1:04 to 2:41)
Reports the Fed's new deliberation meeting
Opens the episode on the October hold and Warsh's refusal to explain it, then goes to the one new item from the press conference: a process change that turns one of eight annual meetings into a strategic deliberation, with two such meetings in 2028.
New angle: Starting next year one of the Fed's eight annual meetings will skip rate votes for strategic deliberations; 2028 gets two. - Marketplace, 2026-10-28 (2:35 to 5:28)
Interviews borrowers squeezed by the hold
Leaves the FOMC statement to report the borrowing side: a hotel owner shelving $300,000 in upgrades, a Colorado bank's slower pipeline, and a Wisconsin manufacturer paying investors 8.5 to 10.5 percent after a bank turned him down. First-hand evidence of the tightening the Fed describes.
New angle: A Wisconsin manufacturer denied a bank loan is paying investors 8.5 to 10.5 percent instead. - FT News Briefing, 2026-10-29 (11:43 to 13:41)
Recaps the hold and the political timing
Recaps the October hold and the groundwork laid for it, then goes to the political timing: the last meeting before the midterms. Walsh, on the record, says politics played no role and that the Fed wants more evidence inflation is broadening.
New angle: Walsh said politics played no role in the hold and the Fed needs evidence inflation is becoming more widespread. - Prof G Markets, 2026-10-29 (20:32 to 22:44)
Recaps the hold and the two dissents
Recaps the October hold and the two dissents, then hands to Morgan Stanley's Gapen, who says the chair never gave a convincing explanation for holding despite strong growth, a stable labor market and above-target inflation.
New angle: Gapen says the chair gave no convincing explanation for holding despite strong growth and above-target inflation. - Prof G Markets, 2026-10-29 (22:32 to 27:06)
Asks Gapen about political motives
Puts the political-motive question to Gapen and gets a policy answer: most of the committee sees supply-side energy inflation the Fed cannot fix, so it leans against second-round effects with a modest recalibration rather than consecutive hikes. Roughly 18 of 19 participants are there, he says.
New angle: Gapen says roughly 18 of the 19 FOMC participants back a modest recalibration rather than consecutive hikes. - Prof G Markets, 2026-10-29 (27:11 to 31:26)
Gets Gapen's rate path and hike timing
Pushes Gapen on whether the 2 percent target is still credible and gets his rate path: core PCE at 3.1 percent now, about 3 percent by year end, 2.6 percent next year, with hikes in December and March. Reads the hold as a messaging conflict rather than a policy turn.
New angle: Morgan Stanley expects Fed hikes in December and again in March, with core PCE at 2.6 percent next year. - Morning Brew Daily, 2026-10-29 (7:41 to 11:13)
Recaps the hold and the pushback on the schedule change
Recaps the October hold and the two dissents, then spends most of its time on Warsh's meeting-schedule change and the analyst pushback it drew. The schedule detail is already on the record; the rest is retelling. - Bloomberg Surveillance, 2026-10-29 (6:04 to 8:17)
Argues the meeting cut is material to markets
Feroli argues the reduced meeting schedule is material to markets and the rationale unconvincing, and flags that Warsh once told the Bank of England to cut from 12 meetings to eight. Adds the mechanics of the gap and the term-premium read.
New angle: Warsh, as an outside adviser, told the Bank of England to cut from 12 meetings to eight a year. - Bloomberg Surveillance, 2026-10-29 (8:14 to 12:51)
Grades the hold and pivots to allocation
BlackRock's Chaudhuri grades the October hold below an A-plus but credits Warsh with explaining the pause, then pivots to portfolio advice: quality equities, the belly of the curve, and record October fixed income ETF inflows. Reaction and allocation, not new reporting on the decision. - Bloomberg Surveillance, 2026-10-29 (13:39 to 18:12)
Recaps the October hold as a September call
Bullard reviews the October hold as a decision effectively made in September, with a quarterly pace in mind and Williams' wait-until-December view carrying the committee. He argues Warsh should have said the Fed just moved and wanted to see the effect, and that the transparency revolution under Bernanke is here to stay. - Squawk Pod, 2026-10-29 (4:33 to 7:21)
Adds Daco and Feroli critiques plus futures
Liesman's readout of the October hold adds two named on-the-record critiques, Daco and Feroli, and the futures pricing that followed: 85 percent for December, 66 percent for March. It also flags Warsh's 'family fight' line as a sign of more board dissension ahead.
New angle: Futures price an 85 percent chance of a December hike and 66 percent for March. - Squawk Pod, 2026-10-29 (15:34 to 16:53)
Forecasts a December hike on data
Cohn, asked whether December brings a hike, calls the decision data dependent but says the data will lead to one. A guest's forecast on the same question the card already tracks, with no new document or figure. - Marketplace, 2026-10-30 (0:56 to 9:00)
Recaps the October meeting and Warsh's remarks
Recaps the October meeting and Warsh's press conference, the trimmed rate-decision schedule and the post-blackout comments from three regional presidents. Stays inside what the week's coverage already had, plus a GDP and PCE recap.