Prof G Markets

@profgmarkets · Podcast

Latest segments

• YouTube tops Netflix in Nielsen, 2026-10-30
  Recaps the Nielsen gap and his own trade
  Josh Brown, a longtime Netflix bull, says the time-spent comparison to YouTube is the fixation he cannot argue away, and that Netflix should lean into premium programming instead of chasing YouTube with podcasts and games. A retelling of the Nielsen gap, plus his own trade.
• Amazon Q3 earnings preview, 2026-10-30
  Pitches Amazon retail as the 2026 unlock
  Brown makes his 2026 big-tech pick Amazon, arguing the retail unit, not AWS, is the unlock: industrialized robots plus AI could double retail by 2032 with no new hires, and a robots-as-a-service model could follow AWS's outward turn. A forward-looking pitch built on Jassy's claim, not on the quarter.
• Amazon Q3 earnings preview, 2026-10-30
  Argues AWS wins the neocloud shakeout
  Runs through the neocloud shakeout thesis and lands on AWS as a winner: the $496 billion backlog, up from $200 billion three quarters earlier, and the argument that only Alphabet and Meta have both a frontier model and their own compute. The Amazon numbers are a recap of the earnings card.
• Western Digital earnings beat, 2026-10-30
  Uses the beat in an anti-bubble argument
  Uses Western Digital's beat as one data point in a broader anti-bubble argument, citing tech earnings growth of 65.6 percent and low PEG ratios for Sandisk, Micron and Western Digital. The earnings figure is a recap, and the estimate is stated slightly differently.
• OpenAI and Anthropic IPO economics, 2026-10-30
  Adds RAMPS data on customer concentration
  Debates moats and bankruptcy risk, then puts RAMPS data on the record: 80 percent of spending on OpenAI and Anthropic comes from 1 percent of companies, and 80 percent of those are venture backed. Also splits the compute commitments into firm contracts and looser options.
• Anthropic's IPO filing, 2026-10-30
  Walks the S-1 cash position
  Walks the S-1 cash position - $112.4 billion as of June 30, 80 percent of the $141 billion raised - and credits the filing for being clean. The substance is the compute commitments already on the record, plus a suggestion that Anthropic buy a distressed neocloud.
• OpenAI and Anthropic IPO economics, 2026-10-30
  Runs free cash flow math on Anthropic
  Runs the free cash flow math on Anthropic: Morningstar's $150 billion by end of next year at a 30 percent margin works out to $45 billion a year, or 44 times a $2 trillion valuation. Brown argues the recursive learning product is being glossed over.
• Anthropic's IPO filing, 2026-10-30
  Debates the most-valuable-company thesis
  Galloway floats a thesis that Anthropic could be the world's most valuable company in three to four years, built on the 13x first-half revenue jump and a Palantir and Nvidia multiple comparison. Brown pushes back on moat and warns of an OpenAI price war. Opinion and prediction, no new filing fact.
• Anthropic's IPO filing, 2026-10-30
  Reframes the loss as a land grab
  Josh Brown reframes the $80 billion loss as a land grab, reading Anthropic through John Malone and Jeff Bezos rather than Ben Graham, and calls the headline loss a red herring. Argument and analogy, not new reporting on the filing.
• Anthropic's IPO filing, 2026-10-30
  Debates which loss number matters
  Debates the S-1's profitability numbers: the $80.7 billion net loss as an accounting artifact, the $693 million operating loss as the number that matters, and the $800 billion in compute purchase agreements not yet on the income statement. Stays inside figures already on the record.
• Anthropic's IPO filing, 2026-10-30
  Moves the debate onto stickiness and moat
  Josh Brown's read on the S-1: the 1,300 percent first-half revenue growth, $1.2 billion to $16.3 billion, and a pace above $30 billion in year three. The debate moves off the growth rate and onto stickiness and moat, staying inside the filing's numbers.
• Microsoft AI buyouts, 2026-10-29
  Tests the buyout against pandemic overhiring
  Takes up Microsoft's voluntary buyout offer covering 27 percent of staff and tests the AI-displacement story against the pandemic overhiring correction. The tell, for Elson, is that a 27 percent cut would put headcount below pre-pandemic levels, which looks structural rather than cyclical.
• Fed holds at 3.75-4%, 2026-10-29
  Gets Gapen's rate path and hike timing
  Pushes Gapen on whether the 2 percent target is still credible and gets his rate path: core PCE at 3.1 percent now, about 3 percent by year end, 2.6 percent next year, with hikes in December and March. Reads the hold as a messaging conflict rather than a policy turn.
• Fed holds at 3.75-4%, 2026-10-29
  Asks Gapen about political motives
  Puts the political-motive question to Gapen and gets a policy answer: most of the committee sees supply-side energy inflation the Fed cannot fix, so it leans against second-round effects with a modest recalibration rather than consecutive hikes. Roughly 18 of 19 participants are there, he says.
• Fed holds at 3.75-4%, 2026-10-29
  Recaps the hold and the two dissents
  Recaps the October hold and the two dissents, then hands to Morgan Stanley's Gapen, who says the chair never gave a convincing explanation for holding despite strong growth, a stable labor market and above-target inflation.
• Alphabet's Q3 miss, 2026-10-29
  Widens to the finite pool of AI capital
  Luria walks through the capex jump and the negative free cash flow, then widens to the finite pool of AI capital: Meta's oversubscribed sale, Oracle's scaled-back raise, and CoreWeave as the marginal borrower. The Google numbers are recap; the read on who still gets funded is the addition.
• Alphabet's Q3 miss, 2026-10-29
  Blames core search advertising for the drop
  Luria walks through why the stock fell despite 25% revenue growth and cloud doubling: the weakness was core search advertising, which appeared to abruptly slow. Frames it against Meta's acceleration and the ChatGPT-era fear, but stays cautious on one quarter.
• Microsoft and Google earnings, 2026-10-29
  Walks through Microsoft's clean beat and raise
  Gil Luria walks through Microsoft's quarter: a clean beat and raise, Azure accelerating from 43% to 48% on a $120 billion business, and free cash flow down 27% but still positive. The argument is that short-term neocloud capacity and a profitable software business let Microsoft avoid the capital markets, unlike Meta and Google. A detailed retelling that stays inside the…
• Microsoft and Google earnings, 2026-10-29
  Previews the earnings split and Azure's 48%
  Reads the day's market vitals, then previews the Microsoft and Google earnings split: Microsoft beat with Azure cloud growth of 48%, Google missed on advertising and free cash flow, and the shares moved in opposite directions.
• Anthropic's IPO filing, 2026-10-28
  Myth-busts the S-1 loss and growth figures
  Myth-busts the S-1 in three parts: the $80 billion loss is a convertible-note fair-value write-up, Q3 growth fell from about 150% to under 50%, and the narrowed losses will not hold once $800 billion in compute commitments land. A tidy recap of figures already on the record.