Bond yields hit highs
Business · Heat 1.5 / 10 · 12 shows · 4h 17m airtime
On September 1, 2026, German 10-year yields reached their highest since 2011 and Japanese 10-year yields their highest since the late 1990s, driven by heavy issuance for deficits and AI data centers. The 10-year Treasury yield later hit 5.3% and the 30-year 5.66%, both the highest since 2002, before a strong 10-year auction and a 19-basis-point one-day drop took the 10-year back below 5% on October 22. The contested question is whether this is a fiscal spiral or a supply shock from hyperscaler borrowing: credit default swaps are tightening and analysts find the fiscal risk premium small, while others point to a $2 trillion deficit and more than $1 trillion in annual interest costs.
How 12 podcasts covered it
- Marketplace, 2026-09-01 (1:53 to 2:35)
Previews global bond yields at multi-decade highs
Opens the episode on global bond yields at multi-decade highs, citing Germany's 10-year at its highest since 2011 and Japan's at its highest since the late 1990s, and previews Justin Ho's report on the feedback loop into U.S. borrowing costs.
New angle: German 10-year yields are at their highest since 2011 and Japanese 10-year yields at their highest since the late 1990s. - Marketplace, 2026-09-01 (2:35 to 4:18)
Explains the drivers behind the yield highs
Explains the drivers behind the multi-decade yield highs: German military spending amid Russia worries, Japanese competition for funds, and heavy bond issuance for deficits and AI data centers. Adds named economists and the U.S. Treasury competitive-pressure link. - Marketplace, 2026-09-01 (4:12 to 4:53)
Puts the 10-year at 4.8 percent
Kai Rizdahl's market spot puts a number on the U.S. side of the global yield story: the 10-year Treasury tops out at 4.8% and stocks sell off. The first hard U.S. figure in a point that had been framed around German and Japanese yields.
New angle: The 10-year Treasury yield topped out at 4.8% as stocks fell. - Prof G Markets, 2026-09-03 (2:24 to 3:32)
Runs the sell-off through a CIO's lens
Runs the global sell-off through a CIO's lens and adds fresh marks: Japan's 10-year at 3% for the first time in three decades, France at its highest since 2008, UK 30-year back to 1990s levels, and the US 30-year at its highest since before the financial crisis.
New angle: Japan's 10-year yield hit 3% for the first time in three decades; France's is at its highest since 2008. - Prof G Markets, 2026-09-03 (3:23 to 16:22)
Interviews Mowrey on the bond sell-off
Interviews NFJ's John Mowrey on the bond sell-off: the two-year sits roughly 60 basis points above the funds rate, the Treasury is buying back $2–4 billion of long-dated debt, and the national debt compounds at about 7.6% a year.
New angle: The two-year yield is roughly 60 basis points above the Fed funds rate; the Treasury is buying back $2–4 billion in long bonds. - Prof G Markets, 2026-09-03 (34:58 to 37:36)
Ties the yield surge to fiscal policy
Ed Elson's commentary segment ties the global yield surge to the administration's fiscal and inflationary policies, adding the 30-year Treasury's 5.3% peak and Druckenmiller's characterization of Bessent's buybacks as an attempt to silence the bond market.
New angle: Stanley Druckenmiller said the buybacks were meant to prevent the bond market from speaking. - Pivot, 2026-09-04 (37:49 to 45:13)
Reads the bond sell-off as a warning
Turns to the global bond sell-off: the 10-year Treasury yield briefly hits about 4.8 percent, its highest since early 2025, and borrowing costs reach multi-decade highs. Bill Cohen reads the bond market as flashing bright yellow, nearly red, over deficits, a closed Strait of Hormuz, rising fuel prices and 3 percent-plus inflation. - The Journal., 2026-09-04 (13:30 to 16:29)
Walks the consumer side of higher yields
Walks the consumer side of the yield story: with government yields at 20-year highs, mortgages, auto loans and new card rates are all above where they were three months ago, and the 30-year fixed is at its highest level of the year. Adds the lock-in effect keeping inventory low.
New angle: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is at its highest level of the year, and low-rate owners are staying put, keeping inventory low. - The Journal., 2026-09-04 (17:11 to 19:01)
Extends yields to the $40 trillion debt
Extends the yields story to the U.S. fiscal position: the national debt is over $40 trillion, and Pitcher warns that if bond investors balk at financing it, rates could go much higher. Also notes a strong jobs report pushed yields up on rate-hike expectations. - Prof G Markets, 2026-09-11 (5:26 to 6:56)
Frames the global selloff with Martin
Frames the episode around the global bond selloff with Katie Martin: multi-decade highs in Japan, the UK, Germany and France, the 30-year back above 5.25%, and Bessent's buyback failing to move yields. It retells the week's coverage and stays inside it.
New angle: The 30-year Treasury yield is back above 5.25%. - Prof G Markets, 2026-09-11 (6:34 to 8:54)
Blames government borrowing for the selloff
Katie Martin attributes the bond selloff mainly to government borrowing, noting the US debt has crossed $40 trillion and that several countries now spend more servicing debt than on defence. She also flags mixed messaging from Walsh and Bessent as unhelpful. - Prof G Markets, 2026-09-11 (10:55 to 13:03)
Widens the story to UK gilt costs
Katie Martin widens the multi-decade-yields story beyond the US: the UK's latest gilt issuance priced at the highest borrowing cost since 1998, and she frames the driver as every large Western economy running debt-fueled spending with no fiscal discipline.
New angle: The UK's government debt issued today carried the highest borrowing costs since 1998. - Prof G Markets, 2026-09-11 (13:03 to 15:08)
Disputes Miran's higher-growth yield thesis
Katie Martin takes on Stephen Miran's FT column arguing higher yields price in a higher-growth US, disputes it as the trigger for the selloff, and walks through Europe: Germany's debt-fueled spending, France's hollowed-out politics and Italian yields below French ones.
New angle: Italian borrowing costs are now slightly lower than France's. - Prof G Markets, 2026-09-11 (19:15 to 21:11)
Adds the UK gilt selloff and welfare cuts
Katie Martin adds the UK leg: the Starmer government's welfare cuts were blocked by MPs, and gilts issued today carried the highest borrowing costs since 1998. She ties the selloff to fiscal politics and the Fed's mixed signals rather than oil. - Prof G Markets, 2026-09-11 (21:17 to 24:28)
Walks through the European yield story
Katie Martin walks through the European leg of the yield story: Germany's turn to debt-fueled spending, France's budget gridlock and polarized presidential race, and the ECB backstop. Adds the France-versus-Italy spread inversion and the political-risk driver. - Prof G Markets, 2026-09-11 (24:42 to 25:39)
Bats down two UK bond talking points
Katie Martin bats down two UK talking points - an IMF bailout and dictating yields to the bond market - and notes a budget is coming. The rest is a recap of the post-COVID borrowing story and UK growth, staying inside the ground already covered. - Marketplace, 2026-09-23 (4:56 to 13:44)
Interviews Wigglesworth on the sell-off
Interviews Robin Wigglesworth on the bond market's role and the current sell-off. Adds fresh numbers - the 10-year at 5.135% and the 30-year at 5.3% - plus the servicing-cost math: about 3.5% of GDP now, trending toward 5% within a decade.
New angle: Servicing U.S. debt costs about 3.5% of GDP and is on track to reach roughly 5% in ten years. - FT News Briefing, 2026-09-24 (1:07 to 1:44)
Adds the hot output data behind the yields
Leads the briefing with a fresh leg of the bond sell-off: an S&P Global report showing US business output accelerating at the fastest pace in five years pushed Treasury yields sharply higher, reviving the too-hot, inflation-out-of-control worry. The first new driver on the record since the strong 10-year auction.
New angle: US business output accelerated this month at the fastest pace in five years, sending Treasury yields soaring. - Prof G Markets, 2026-09-24 (2:13 to 21:00)
Explains the yield surge with Howard Marks
Howard Marks joins to explain the yield surge: stubborn inflation stuck above 2% for five years, a $2 trillion annual deficit run during prosperity, and AI capital demand competing with Treasury issuance. He calls the buybacks cosmetic and says rates are unlikely to fall much in the next year or two.
New angle: The U.S. is spending $2 trillion a year more than it takes in taxes, and the last budget surplus was 2000. - Squawk Pod, 2026-09-24 (4:39 to 7:31)
Adds Williams and Barr on more hikes
Adds the Fed's own voices to the yield story: Williams says another hike by year-end is reasonable and forward guidance is over, Barr says more hikes may be needed, and traders put a 67% chance on an October quarter-point move.
New angle: Williams called another hike by year-end reasonable; traders now price a 67% chance of an October quarter-point hike. - Closing Bell, 2026-09-24 (16:47 to 21:54)
Adds the fixed-debt cushion behind the yields
HSBC's Alastair Pinder walks through the global yield run: Germany at 2009 highs, Japan at 1996 levels, US near 2007. Adds a structural cushion - about 90 percent of S&P 500 debt is long-term fixed today versus 40 percent in 2007, and 95 percent of US mortgages are fixed.
New angle: About 90 percent of S&P 500 debt is long-term fixed today, versus 40 percent in 2007. - FT News Briefing, 2026-09-25 (6:18 to 7:42)
Frames the sell-off and the Fed's turn
Sets up the bond sell-off segment with Kate Duguid: yields at levels not seen since the run-up to the financial crisis, and a Fed that may be at the start of a hiking cycle rather than a one-off. Framing and recap, no new figure. - FT News Briefing, 2026-09-25 (7:42 to 9:00)
Explains what each yield curve section signals
Kate Duguid walks through what each part of the yield curve signals - short end for the Fed's next move, medium term for policy further out and US growth, the 30-year for inflation expectations - and notes all three sections have been rising. An explainer, not a new development. - Bloomberg Surveillance, 2026-09-26 (2:41 to 3:01)
Checks the 10-year at its highest since 2007
Market data check inside a personal-finance segment: the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.16%, the highest since 2007, and the five-year above 5%. A fresh figure for the global bond selloff, framed around what it means for retirement accounts.
New angle: The 10-year Treasury yield is 5.16%, the highest since 2007, and the five-year is above 5%. - WSJ What's News, 2026-09-27 (2:06 to 15:42)
Walks through drivers of the 5% yield
Bank of America's Meghan Swiber walks through what is driving the 10-year yield to 5%, the highest since 2007: Fed rate expectations, a term premium, and heavy investment-grade issuance competing with Treasuries. She puts a number on that competition - IG bonds at about 100 basis points over the 30-year.
New angle: Investment-grade corporate bonds are trading about 100 basis points over the 30-year Treasury rate. - WSJ What's News, 2026-09-28 (4:56 to 9:50)
Adds the buy side locking in 6% yields
Turns to the buy side of the selloff: Zuckerman and Pitcher say big bond investors are excited to lock in 6% to 7% investment-grade yields, with Ray Dalio the lone loud fear on debt and spending.
New angle: Investment-grade bonds are yielding 6% to 7%, and German 10-year yields hit their highest since 2009. - Big Take, 2026-09-28 (4:05 to 6:01)
Explains the drivers behind the bond sell-off
Explains the drivers behind the global bond sell-off - hot growth, sticky inflation, deficits near 6% of GDP and hyperscaler issuance - and adds the Buffett indicator at roughly 240%, the highest on record. Explanation and framing, not a new development in the story. - Big Take, 2026-09-28 (6:06 to 6:57)
Recaps the global leg of the sell-off
Recaps the global leg of the sell-off - Japan, Australia and Germany - and attributes it to post-pandemic inflation and pandemic-era deficits. It stays inside the framing the point already carries. - Marketplace, 2026-09-28 (1:31 to 2:31)
Extends the bond-yield story to 19-year highs
Opens the episode by extending the bond-yield story: yields across the curve hit 19-year highs on September 28, framed as a signal of strong activity, high government debt and unclear geopolitics, with the week's data calendar previewed. - Prof G Markets, 2026-09-29 (2:47 to 17:45)
Argues the sell-off is a passive-investing artifact
Michael Green argues the global bond sell-off is a mechanical byproduct of passive investing against improperly constructed bond indices, not a fiscal or inflation signal. He points to tightening US credit default swaps, falling inflation swaps and a strengthening dollar as contradicting the fiscal narrative, and calls long-duration bonds below par a buying opportunity.
New angle: Credit default swaps on US credit are tightening and inflation swaps are falling, contradicting the fiscal narrative. - Bloomberg Surveillance, 2026-09-29 (0:35 to 7:17)
Blames vigilante algorithms for the yield spike
Yardeni attributes the synchronized rise in global yields partly to bond vigilante algorithms that amplify headline-driven trades, and ties it to the Bank of Japan unwinding the carry trade. He also flags a postponed Stargate data center after New Mexico rejected a 19-mile gas pipeline.
New angle: A Stargate data center was postponed after New Mexico rejected a 19-mile gas pipeline. - The Compound and Friends, 2026-09-29 (15:56 to 23:01)
Brings a historical stat to the yield story
Brings a historical stat to the yield story: the 10-year has risen in 18 of the last 24 sessions, a pattern seen 11 times since 1965, and yields were lower a year later 80 percent of the time, by about 90 basis points on average. Also cites Daryl Duffy on foreign central banks stepping back and Yardeni on corporate issuance…
New angle: After 18 of 24 sessions with rising 10-year yields, a pattern seen 11 times since 1965, yields were lower a year later 80 percent of the time, by about 90… - Bloomberg Surveillance, 2026-09-30 (16:03 to 22:39)
Adds hyperscaler issuance rivaling Treasury supply
Nordvig calls fixed income the epicenter of market stress and adds a supply-side figure: hyperscaler issuance above 10-year maturity could be roughly the same magnitude as Treasury issuance. Also flags BMW's management cuts and the pressure on German automakers from China.
New angle: Hyperscaler issuance above 10-year maturity could be roughly the same magnitude as Treasury issuance. - Marketplace, 2026-10-01 (1:36 to 3:39)
Walks through the 5.23% close and its costs
Opens the show on the long-end selloff with an economist: the 10-year yield closed at 5.23% after touching a quarter-century high intraday, and the segment walks through what that does to mortgages, card debt and business loans.
New angle: The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.23% after hitting a quarter-century high during the session. - FT News Briefing, 2026-10-02 (4:58 to 5:47)
Adds the Eurozone leg of the sell-off
Adds the Eurozone leg of the sell-off: French 10-year yields at their highest since 2002, Italian yields up half a point, and UK 30-year gilts above 6%, the highest since 1998.
New angle: French 10-year yields hit their highest since 2002 and UK 30-year gilts topped 6%, the highest since 1998. - Prof G Markets, 2026-10-02 (22:41 to 26:02)
Puts numbers on AI debt crowding out Treasuries
Eisman puts numbers on the crowding-out side of the yield story: CoreWeave's debt would price at 11% today versus 9% six months ago, and he says $500 billion of AI issuance is crowding out Treasuries and holding the 10-year up.
New angle: CoreWeave raised debt at 9% six months ago; today it would probably be 11%. - Odd Lots, 2026-10-05 (0:58 to 2:14)
Frames the 5.592% 30-year against deficits and AI borrowing
Opens with the 30-year Treasury at 5.592%, the highest since 2002, and frames the backdrop: a Fed hike since Jackson Hole that yields ignored, large deficits, AI borrowing, and the Fed communication debate.
New angle: The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.592%, its highest since 2002. - Odd Lots, 2026-10-05 (41:16 to 41:58)
Compares China's 2% 30-year to the US 5.6%
Adds a cross-country comparison to the global yield story: China's 30-year yield sits at 2% against the US 30-year at 5.6%, a spread the hosts frame as a hegemonic transition without war.
New angle: China's 30-year bond yield is 2%, against 5.6% for the US 30-year. - Odd Lots, 2026-10-05 (42:06 to 46:49)
Charts the Chinese-US 10-year spread flip
Wraps the bond-market episode with a chart idea: the Chinese–US 10-year spread flipped during COVID and now sits above 350 basis points, read as evidence of a possible financial-hegemon handoff.
New angle: The spread between Chinese and US 10-year yields flipped during COVID and is now over 350 basis points. - Prof G Markets, 2026-10-05 (39:47 to 46:46)
Reports 10-year at 5.3% and 30-year past 5.6%
Puts the 10-year at 5.3% and the 30-year past 5.6%, both the highest since 2002, and ties the level directly to the IPO postponements and to lower equity valuations. The rest is a mentor's line about market dynamics and Scott's own 2000 shutdown.
New angle: The 10-year yield hit 5.3% and the 30-year passed 5.6%, both the highest since 2002. - Prof G Markets, 2026-10-05 (48:10 to 55:31)
Recaps Eisman's correction call and the inflation print
Ed makes the case that the bond sell-off is overdone and near-6% Treasury yields offer attractive risk-adjusted returns; Scott says he has never owned a bond but is now looking at fixed income. The segment stays inside the yields story already on the record, recapping Eisman's imminent-correction call and the 3.4% inflation print. - Squawk Pod, 2026-10-05 (2:24 to 4:06)
Adds French yields passing Greek
Airs Bessent's Axios remarks that he cannot control the bond market and that he now has superior information as an insider, then turns to Europe: French yields have passed Greek yields, with a note calling France the new Greece and the French 10-year at 4.91%.
New angle: French 10-year yields are now higher than Greek yields, at 4.91%. - Big Take, 2026-10-05 (0:55 to 2:43)
Reports 30-year yields at 5.66%
Opens the episode on the bond sell-off with a fresh figure: 30-year yields at 5.66% over the past week, above the 5.592% already on the record. Frames the debate as stronger economy versus a market that thinks taming inflation will take longer, and extends the frame to France, the UK and Japan.
New angle: Yields on 30-year US bonds hit 5.66% in the past week. - Big Take, 2026-10-05 (2:43 to 4:03)
Reads the widest spread since 2011 as breakup risk
Pushes past the yield levels already on the record to the French-German spread, which Authers says is the widest since 2011 and near taking out that level, and reads it as the market pricing a real risk the Eurozone breaks apart.
New angle: The French-German bond spread is the widest since 2011, near taking out that level. - Big Take, 2026-10-05 (4:03 to 5:20)
Walks through the French-German spread
Authers walks through the French-German spread and the euro zone's cohesion problem, then the panel pivots to the US deficit, populism and mortgage strain. The spread fact is already on the record; the rest is context and opinion. - Big Take, 2026-10-05 (5:17 to 6:54)
Ties the bond sell-off to politics and deficits
Heather Long ties the bond sell-off to politics: a projected $2 trillion US deficit for 2026, populist wins like Abdul El-Said's Michigan Senate race, and Trump's proposed $5,000 checks. John Authers expects yields to stay above 5% for the rest of his career.
New angle: Preliminary estimates put the US deficit at $2 trillion for 2026, against $1 trillion in 2019. - Big Take, 2026-10-05 (6:54 to 9:20)
Puts a number on her own yield worry line
Heather Long puts a number on her own worry line: she gets worried if the 10-year Treasury yield passes 5.5%, because rapid repricing forces corporate debt renegotiations and bankruptcies. Adds the frozen mortgage market above 7%, rising personal loan rates, and bank balance sheets holding government debt that yields well below 5%.
New angle: Heather Long's worry threshold is a 10-year Treasury yield above 5.5%. - Marketplace, 2026-10-05 (1:37 to 3:40)
Reports weak demand at the Treasury auctions
Reports from the Treasury auction desk: the two-, five- and seven-year sales a couple of weeks ago drew much weaker demand than expected, and investors now want higher yields than the government is offering ahead of this week's 10- and 30-year auctions.
New angle: Demand at the two-, five- and seven-year Treasury auctions was much weaker than expected. - FT News Briefing, 2026-10-06 (1:22 to 2:48)
Turns to borrowing costs for low-rated issuers
Turns to the corporate side of the sell-off: borrowing costs for the lowest-rated companies are at their highest since May 2020, up about 17%, and Bank of America says issuers are pulling back from October issuance. Defaults have not ticked up yet, and AI builders are ignoring the move.
New angle: Borrowing costs for the lowest-rated companies are at their highest since May 2020, up about 17%. - FT News Briefing, 2026-10-06 (2:48 to 4:03)
Adds the credit side of the sell-off
Kate Duguid adds the credit side of the sell-off: default rates have not ticked up yet, but would be expected to if rates stay here, and AI builders are borrowing anyway because not building is the bigger risk.
New angle: Default rates have not yet ticked up, but should be expected to rise if rates stay high.